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CPI Reports In-Line, All Eyes on Stimulus Bill

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Wednesday, March 10, 2021

New Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for February were released before today’s opening bell, with results coming exactly in-line with estimates on both the headline number — +0.4% — and “core,” subtracting volatile food and energy prices — +0.1%. Both these figures are up 10 basis points from the +0.3% and 0.0% reported, respectively, a month ago. This is a measure of steady but subtle inflation beginning to assert itself in the overall economy.

Energy was up 3.9% for the month (led by a 6.4% gain in gasoline prices), though only +2.4% year over year. Food prices show the flip-side, +0.2% for February but +3.6% year over year. This is expected to be the last of the “easy” CPI reads, as early “shelter in place” affects hit the CPI read at the start of the coronavirus pandemic a year ago. Thus, analysts expect CPI reads for the next three months to rise sharply. Some may interpret this as a spike in inflation, but really it will be a comp against temporary deflation.

As of now, 32.1 million Americans — nearly 10% of the entire population — have been fully vaccinated from Covid-19, with roughly 100 million shots having been administered thus far. We are at around 29 million cases overall, with a fatality total now north of 530K. The good news is that both the infection rate and death totals have slowed their trajectories, with immunization being an important staple in this development.

We are also potentially going to see the American Rescue Plan signed into law by President Biden today, an historic $1.9 trillion stimulus/relief package that includes $1400 to lower and mid-income households, rent and unemployment protection, vaccination costs, and many other things. It is a package supported by 3/4 of all Americans, including 59% of Republicans and 71% of Independents. Aside from providing relief to those on the lower economic spectrum, it should also propel both spending and investment overall.

As such, we’re seeing new all-time highs within striking distance for the Dow Jones index, if not for the Nasdaq just yet. But both pre-market trading results are pushing the indexes well into the green after a successful trading day yesterday that began to peter out ahead of the closing bell. We may see a delay in the passage of the American Rescue Plan in the House today from members of the GOP, but any delays will likely be only temporary.

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