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Ironwood (IRWD) Up 20.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD - Free Report) . Shares have added about 20.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ironwood due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ironwood Q4 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Ironwood reported fourth-quarter 2020 adjusted earnings of 36 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 27 cents. The company had reported adjusted earnings of 30 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenues of $116.7 million also beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $106.5 million. However, revenues were down 7.6% year over year. The company records Linzess sales in revenues after deducting certain higher commercial costs and expenses. These expenses were higher year over year during the quarter leading to decline in sales.

Quarter in Detail

As reported by partner AbbVie, Linzess net sales totaled $278 million in the United States, up 16% year over year.

Ironwood's share of net profits from sales of Linzess in the United States (included in collaborative revenues) was $110.7 million in the fourth quarter, up approximately 9% year over year.

Per data provided by IQVIA, volume of prescribed Linzess capsules in the fourth quarter increased about 8% year over year.

Revenues also include $3.5 million in linaclotide royalties, co-promotion and other revenues. The company recorded $2.5 million from sales of linaclotide API to its partners.

Full-Year Results

Ironwood reported revenues of $389.5 million, down 9.1% year over year. However, collaboration revenues from Linzess were up 13% year over year to $369 million. The company recorded earnings of 79 cents per share for 2020, up 43.6% from the year-ago period.

2021 Guidance Issued

Ironwood issued its guidance for Linzess sales and total revenues in 2021. The company expects its total revenues to be between $370 million and $385 million, which suggests year-over-year decline. The It expects sales of Linzess to grow 3 in 2021.

The company expects adjusted EBITDA to be more than $190 million for the year.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 36.67% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Ironwood has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. It's no surprise Ironwood has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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