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Ameren (AEE) Up 6.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ameren (AEE - Free Report) . Shares have added about 6.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ameren due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Ameren Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y
Ameren Corporation fourth-quarter 2020 earnings of 46 cents per share from continuing operations exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 43 cents by 7%. Moreover, the reported figure rose 21% from the 38 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
The company generated 2020 adjusted earnings of $3.50 per share from continuing operations, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.76 by 6.9%. The bottom line, however, improved 4.5% from the year-ago tally.
Total Revenues
Total revenues came in at $1,328 million in the reported quarter, which improved 0.9% year over year due to higher electric sales volumes. Revenues, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,365 million by 2.7%.
In 2020, the company generated total revenues of $5,794 million, which slid 2% from the year-ago tally. The top-line figure also lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6,220 million by 6.8%.
Highlights of the Release
Ameren’s total electricity sales volumes declined 8.3% to 16,254 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) compared with 17,718 million kWh witnessed in the year-ago quarter. However, gas volumes contracted 11.1% to 56 million dekatherms.
Total operating expenses summed $1,117 million, down 1.8% year over year.
The company’s interest expenses in the fourth quarter were $108 million compared with the prior-year quarter’s $91 million.
Segment Results
The Ameren Missouri segment reported an operating income of $436 million in 2020 compared with the $426 million recorded in 2019. This year-over-year upside reflects new electric service rates effective Apr 1, 2020.
The Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution segment reported an operating income of $143 million in 2020 compared with $146 million registered in 2019. The year-over-year decline reflects a lower allowed return on equity due to a reduced average 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield in 2020 compared to 2019.
The Ameren Illinois Natural Gas segment reported an operating income of $99 million in 2020 compared with $84 million generated in 2019. This year-over-year improvement reflects increased earnings on infrastructure investments and lower operations and maintenance expenses due to disciplined cost management.
The Ameren Transmission segment reported an operating income of $216 million in 2020 compared with the prior year’s $185 million. The upswing reflects increased earnings on infrastructure investments.
Financial Condition
Ameren reported cash and cash equivalents of $139 million as of Dec 31, 2020, compared with $16 million registered at 2019-end.
As of Dec 31, 2020, long-term debt totaled $11,078 million compared with $8,915 million as of Dec 31, 2019.
In 2020, cash from operating activities amounted to $1,727 million compared with $2,170 million as of Dec 31, 2019.
Guidance
Ameren has issued its 2021 guidance. The company expects earnings in the range of $3.65-$3.85 per share. Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the ongoing-year earnings is pegged at $3.76 per share, higher than the midpoint of management’s guidance.
Ameren also affirmed its 2021 through 2025 compound annual earnings per share growth expectations of 6-8%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
Currently, Ameren has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Ameren has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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Ameren (AEE) Up 6.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Ameren (AEE - Free Report) . Shares have added about 6.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ameren due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Ameren Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y
Ameren Corporation fourth-quarter 2020 earnings of 46 cents per share from continuing operations exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 43 cents by 7%. Moreover, the reported figure rose 21% from the 38 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
The company generated 2020 adjusted earnings of $3.50 per share from continuing operations, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.76 by 6.9%. The bottom line, however, improved 4.5% from the year-ago tally.
Total Revenues
Total revenues came in at $1,328 million in the reported quarter, which improved 0.9% year over year due to higher electric sales volumes. Revenues, however, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,365 million by 2.7%.
In 2020, the company generated total revenues of $5,794 million, which slid 2% from the year-ago tally. The top-line figure also lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6,220 million by 6.8%.
Highlights of the Release
Ameren’s total electricity sales volumes declined 8.3% to 16,254 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) compared with 17,718 million kWh witnessed in the year-ago quarter. However, gas volumes contracted 11.1% to 56 million dekatherms.
Total operating expenses summed $1,117 million, down 1.8% year over year.
The company’s interest expenses in the fourth quarter were $108 million compared with the prior-year quarter’s $91 million.
Segment Results
The Ameren Missouri segment reported an operating income of $436 million in 2020 compared with the $426 million recorded in 2019. This year-over-year upside reflects new electric service rates effective Apr 1, 2020.
The Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution segment reported an operating income of $143 million in 2020 compared with $146 million registered in 2019. The year-over-year decline reflects a lower allowed return on equity due to a reduced average 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield in 2020 compared to 2019.
The Ameren Illinois Natural Gas segment reported an operating income of $99 million in 2020 compared with $84 million generated in 2019. This year-over-year improvement reflects increased earnings on infrastructure investments and lower operations and maintenance expenses due to disciplined cost management.
The Ameren Transmission segment reported an operating income of $216 million in 2020 compared with the prior year’s $185 million. The upswing reflects increased earnings on infrastructure investments.
Financial Condition
Ameren reported cash and cash equivalents of $139 million as of Dec 31, 2020, compared with $16 million registered at 2019-end.
As of Dec 31, 2020, long-term debt totaled $11,078 million compared with $8,915 million as of Dec 31, 2019.
In 2020, cash from operating activities amounted to $1,727 million compared with $2,170 million as of Dec 31, 2019.
Guidance
Ameren has issued its 2021 guidance. The company expects earnings in the range of $3.65-$3.85 per share. Currently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the ongoing-year earnings is pegged at $3.76 per share, higher than the midpoint of management’s guidance.
Ameren also affirmed its 2021 through 2025 compound annual earnings per share growth expectations of 6-8%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.
VGM Scores
Currently, Ameren has a poor Growth Score of F, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Ameren has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.