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BioDelivery (BDSI) Down 12.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for BioDelivery Sciences International (BDSI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 12.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is BioDelivery due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

BioDelivery Beats Q4 Earnings and Revenues Estimates

BioDelivery recorded earnings of 10 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2020, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 7 cents per share. The company had incurred a loss of 1 cent per share in the year-ago period.

The reported earnings include share-based compensation and certain other expenses. Excluding these items, adjusted earnings were 14 cents per share compared with earnings of 6 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Revenues totaled $42.2 million, up 33.5% from the year-ago period. Sales outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $38.75 million. The uptick was mainly driven by higher sales of Belbuca and Symproic.

Quarter in Detail

Belbuca generated revenues of $35.6 million in the quarter, up 2.3% sequentially. On a year-over-year basis, the top line soared 25.8%. Sales of the drug have been witnessing a strong uptrend since 2018.

BioDelivery recorded Belbuca prescriptions of more than 119,000 in the quarter, representing prescription volume growth of 21% in the quarter.

Symproic sales in the fourth quarter were $3.7 million, up 5.7% sequentially and 35% year over year. Total Symproic prescriptions during the quarter were 19,000, which represented 10% growth from the prior-year period.

Belbuca and Symproic continued to gain market share. Both drugs hit an all-time high for prescription volume and market share during the fourth quarter.

Revenues from of Bunavail were $2.4 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting a portion of the sales returns reserves. Please note that the company discontinued commercialization of Bunvail in June 2020.

Product Royalty revenues in the fourth quarter were $0.5 million compared with $1.2 million in the year-ago period.

Operating expenses were down 10.4% year over year to $21.4 million.

Full-Year Results

BioDelivery reported revenues of $156.5 million, up 40.5% from the year-ago period. The company reported earnings of 26 cents per share against a loss of 18 cents per share incurred in the year-ago period.

2021 Guidance

BioDelivery issued guidance for revenues and operating expenses in 2021. The company expects total revenues in 2021 to be in the range of $170 - $180 million. The guidance considers the expected negative impact from the winter storms during the first quarter of 2021, which affected some of the company’s most productive territories.

The company expects Belbuca sales to be between $155 million and $165 million. Operating expense for 2021 is expected to be in the range of $115-$120 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted -58.33% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, BioDelivery has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise BioDelivery has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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