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Hess (HES) Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Hess Corporation (HES - Free Report) is set to report first-quarter 2021 results on Apr 28, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the leading global independent energy company reported adjusted loss per share of 58 cents, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 67 cents, largely backed by higher production from the Bakken play and lower operating expenses. This was partially offset by lower realized oil and gas prices.

Markedly, the company beat the consensus estimate in three of the prior four quarters and met once, with the average earnings surprise being 8%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Hess Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Hess Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Hess Corporation price-eps-surprise | Hess Corporation Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share of 45 cents has witnessed five upward revisions and no downward movement in the past 30 days. The estimated figure suggests an improvement of 175% from the prior-year reported number.

The consensus estimate for first-quarter revenues of $1.7 billion indicates a 22.7% rise from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Note

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has significantly improved over the past few months. The rollout of multiple vaccines against the coronavirus pandemic boosted investor confidence in fuel demand recovery, thereby lifting crude price. This is expected to have boosted Hess’ bottom line in the first quarter.

Despite Bakken play production ramp up, domestic production is likely to decline year over year for the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s domestic oil production is pegged at 122 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), suggesting a decline from 162 MBbl/d in the March quarter of 2020.  

Overall, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total production is pegged at 311 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d), indicating a decline from 349 Mboe/d in the prior-year quarter. However, strong production from offshore Guyana’s Stabroek Block, wherein it has Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM - Free Report) as the operator, might have partially offset the negative impacts on total output.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Hess this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are both currently pegged at earnings of 45 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Hess currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Hess, here are some companies from the Energy space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.04% and a Zacks Rank of 1. It is scheduled to report first-quarter results on May 6. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Continental Resources, Inc. has an Earnings ESP of +23.18% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release quarterly earnings on Apr 28.

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