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Why Is GrubHub (GRUB) Down 10.8% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for GrubHub . Shares have lost about 10.8% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is GrubHub due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Grubhub Q1 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y

Grubhub reported a loss of 56 cents per share in first-quarter 2021. The company had reported break-even loss in the year-ago quarter. Markedly, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings was pegged at 3 cents per share.

Revenues surged 52% year over year to $550.6 million, beating the consensus mark by 6.3%.

Gross Food Sales (GFS) jumped 60% year over year to $1.6 billion. Active diners were 33 million, up 38% year over year. Daily Average Grubs (DAGs) were 745,700, up 44% year over year.

The company’s capture rate, net revenues divided by gross food sales, remained flat sequentially at 21%.

Adjusted EBITDA loss was $9 million or 14 cents per order against adjusted EBITDA of $31 million or 52 cents per order.

Revenues excluding operations and support costs were $2.34 per order, down from the last quarter’s $3.05.

Markedly, in June 2020, Grubhub announced its acquisition by Just Eat that will create the largest and the only profitable online food marketplace outside of China. Due to the pending acquisition, the company didn’t issue any forward-looking guidance.

Balance Sheet

As of Mar 31, 2021, cash and cash equivalents (including short-term investments) were $404.7 million compared with $413.4 million as of Dec 31, 2020.

Long-term debt as of Mar 31, 2021, was $404.7 million compared with $494.1 million as of Dec 31, 2020.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -52% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, GrubHub has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise GrubHub has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

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