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Select Medical (SEM) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

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Shares of Select Medical Holdings (SEM - Free Report) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 7.5% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $43.6 in the previous session. Select Medical Holdings has gained 55.8% since the start of the year compared to the 2.8% move for the Zacks Medical sector and the 16.4% return for the Zacks Medical - HMOs industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on May 6, 2021, Select Medical reported EPS of $0.82 versus consensus estimate of $0.65.

For the current fiscal year, Select Medical is expected to post earnings of $2.56 per share on $6.11 billion in revenues. This represents a 35.45% change in EPS on a 10.37% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $2.91 per share on $6.26 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 13.67% and 2.47%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Select Medical may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Select Medical has a Value Score of A. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are C and D, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 16.8X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 12.6X versus its peer group's average of 16.9X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 1.12. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to consider the stock's Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Select Medical currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Select Medical fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though Select Medical shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.


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