An applaudably healthy jobs number from the Employment Report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning brought 850K new hires for the month of June — higher than the 700K or so analysts were expecting. Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.3%, as expected, and +3.6% year over year. The Unemployment Rate inched up to 5.9% from an expected drop to 5.7%, but this is likely the effect of more Americans re-entering the labor force.
Revisions to the last two months help smooth out our recent labor force picture: May’s new headline is up 24K from the original print, to 583K, while April’s took away 9K to 269K. This brings us to an average clip over the past quarter-year of a solid 584K per month. Obviously, June hires have hit the accelerator — but 850K doesn’t seem so much a near-term peak as a function of our new, re-opening reality.
Look at gains in the sub-segment Food & Drinking Establishments: +194K new jobs in the month (of the 343K from Leisure & Hospitality). A perfect storm of vaccinated regions reopening safely with summer outdoor months and a higher level of household savings are combining for a big comeback in going “out on the town.” Wage increases are likely just as big a reason for this type of employment as is the pullback of pandemic-related unemployment insurance.
Elsewhere, Professional & Business Services gained 72K new jobs last month, directly correlating to increased business spending. Retail Trade was +67K, also a sector analysts have been looking for bounce-back. Based on pre-pandemic standards, we’re still down 6.8 million (from February 2020), or 4.4%. Also, Average Workweek dipped to 34.7 hours, lower than expected, while Labor Force Participation was a still-modest 61.6%.
Had today’s headline been something gaudy like a million new jobs with Unemployment crashing to 5.5% or so, market participants may have gotten a bit nervy. As it turns out, these look like wholly digestible numbers for the market on this final trading day of the week. Currently, the Dow is +72 points, the S&P is +13 and the Nasdaq is +90. Looks like a time for merriment from here. Happy Friday!
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Job Additions in June Exceed Expectations
An applaudably healthy jobs number from the Employment Report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning brought 850K new hires for the month of June — higher than the 700K or so analysts were expecting. Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.3%, as expected, and +3.6% year over year. The Unemployment Rate inched up to 5.9% from an expected drop to 5.7%, but this is likely the effect of more Americans re-entering the labor force.
Revisions to the last two months help smooth out our recent labor force picture: May’s new headline is up 24K from the original print, to 583K, while April’s took away 9K to 269K. This brings us to an average clip over the past quarter-year of a solid 584K per month. Obviously, June hires have hit the accelerator — but 850K doesn’t seem so much a near-term peak as a function of our new, re-opening reality.
Look at gains in the sub-segment Food & Drinking Establishments: +194K new jobs in the month (of the 343K from Leisure & Hospitality). A perfect storm of vaccinated regions reopening safely with summer outdoor months and a higher level of household savings are combining for a big comeback in going “out on the town.” Wage increases are likely just as big a reason for this type of employment as is the pullback of pandemic-related unemployment insurance.
Elsewhere, Professional & Business Services gained 72K new jobs last month, directly correlating to increased business spending. Retail Trade was +67K, also a sector analysts have been looking for bounce-back. Based on pre-pandemic standards, we’re still down 6.8 million (from February 2020), or 4.4%. Also, Average Workweek dipped to 34.7 hours, lower than expected, while Labor Force Participation was a still-modest 61.6%.
Had today’s headline been something gaudy like a million new jobs with Unemployment crashing to 5.5% or so, market participants may have gotten a bit nervy. As it turns out, these look like wholly digestible numbers for the market on this final trading day of the week. Currently, the Dow is +72 points, the S&P is +13 and the Nasdaq is +90. Looks like a time for merriment from here. Happy Friday!