A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Ultragenyx (RARE Quick QuoteRARE - Free Report) . Shares have added about 15% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Ultragenyx due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Ultragenyx Q2 Loss Widens Y/Y, Revenues Beat Estimates

Ultragenyx reported a second-quarter 2021 adjusted net loss of $1.35 per share (excluding change in fair value of equity investments), comparing unfavorably with the year-ago quarter’s net loss of $1.15. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at a loss of $1.28 per share for the quarter.

On a reported basis, net loss per share came in at $1.81 against earnings of 41 cents in the year-ago quarter.

In the second quarter, Ultragenyx’s total revenues were $87 million, up 40.9% year over year, driven by strong launches of Dojolvi and Crysvita (for the second indication). The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $83.4 million.

Quarter in Detail

Ultragenyx markets three drugs, namely Crysvita, Mepsevii and Dojolvi (UX007). Crysvita is approved for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia (XLH), an inherited disorder and tumor-induced osteomalacia (TIO), an ultra-rare disease. Mepsevii is approved to treat Mucopolysaccharidosis VII (MPS VII), also known as Sly syndrome. Dojolvi was approved last year for all forms of long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders (LC-FAOD).

Crysvita’s total revenues were $49.6 million, up 32.7% year over year, driven by increased demand for both approved indications. Crysvita revenues in Ultragenyx territories rose 38% to $44.7 million in the quarter and included $41.8 million from the North America profit share territory as well as $2.9 million of net product sales for the drug in other regions. Total royalty revenues related to the sales of Crysvita in the European Territory were $4.9 million.

Mepsevii product revenues were $5.4 million in the quarter, up 29% year over year. Dojolvi (UX007) product revenues were $10 million compared with $1.33 million in the year-ago quarter, driven by strong new patient demand. Revenues in the quarter also included $21.9 million in relation to the collaboration and license agreement with Daiichi Sankyo for Ultragenyx’s proprietary AAV-based gene therapy manufacturing technologies, which were executed in March 2020.

Operating expenses rose 36% to $169.8 million in the quarter due to pipeline advancements.

2021 Guidance

The company reaffirmed the guidance for Crysvita, it provided earlier in 2021. This range is $180-$190 million in the Ultragenyx territories. R&D and SG&A costs are expected to increase in 2021 as the company supports its expanding pipeline and the launches of Crysvita, Dojolvi and Mepsevii.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Ultragenyx has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Ultragenyx has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.