In the Global Week Ahead, key monthly U.S. jobs numbers come out on Friday.

Before that critical U.S. macro data stirs the pot, an OPEC+ meeting concludes on Monday. That group of ministers will review oil output, as Brent crude prices top $80 dollars a barrel.

Those are the macro themes at the top of the agenda for markets — as 2021 heads into the homestretch — following a bumpy Q3 ride.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, after being reordered for equity traders.

These five themes likely dominate the thinking of both investors and traders:

(1) The Last Three Months Have Been Bumpy for Stock Traders

It's been quite a ride over the past three months: Chinese markets suffered some of their heaviest falls ever, energy prices spiraled, shipping and commodity costs soared and the clearest signs yet have emerged that central banks are starting to turn off the money taps.

The shakeout has led to the first quarter of losses for world stocks since COVID-19 began to take its toll early last year, bonds have had a shaky September amid taper talk, and the safe-haven dollar is gunning for its strongest year since 2015.

Analysts predict a bumpy ride ahead, with markets pricing the end of the "Goldilocks" scenario — when growth and inflation are neither too high nor too low. Time for investors to be aware of the bears.

(2) Federal Nonfarm Payrolls for September Land on Friday

In September, the U.S. Fed said trimming monthly bond purchases could be warranted "soon"; Chair Jerome Powell noted it'll take one more "decent" jobs report to set the wheels in motion — not a "super-strong" one, just one that's "reasonably good.”

Will Friday's September nonfarm numbers — the last official jobs report before the Fed's November meeting — do the trick?

A Reuters poll expects 500,000 jobs were added after August's massive miss. The Fed's $120 billion-a-month government bond buying helped the S&P 500 double from March 2020 lows. But tapering and rate hike prospects have lifted U.S. Treasury yields and contributed to the S&P’s 4% drop in September.

Stronger-than-expected numbers might fuel fears the Fed could wind down easy-money policies faster than anticipated, potentially causing more market turbulence.

(3) Lots of Supply Concerns and Price Pressure Likely This Winter

Power cuts in China, queues at fuel pumps in Britain, soaring energy prices everywhere.

Headlines resonate with the 1970s, and nowhere more so than in Britain, where the army will help to alleviate a fuel shortage that has led to gaps on supermarket shelves and fights at gas stations. The end of a COVID jobs support scheme means more uncertainty.

For some, a 1970s-style "winter of discontent," when Britain's economy was brought to its knees by strikes and power cuts, is coming. But Britain's not alone. China’s power cuts have crippled industrial output. European consumers face higher winter fuel bills as gas prices soar.

Any signs that the pressures on supply chains, labor shortages and energy prices are abating will bring relief, especially for battered sterling.

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) take on inflation on Wednesday could shed light on whether rampant price pressures akin to the 1970s are taking hold.

(4) OPEC Meets on Monday

When ministers from OPEC+ — the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia — meet on Monday to review output policy they face oil prices at three-year highs above $80 a barrel and consumer pressure for more supply.

Until recently, sources expected the group to stick to the existing plan agreed in July and boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) a month to phase out 5.8 million bpd in cuts.

But with prices boosted by unplanned U.S. outages and a strong demand recovery after the pandemic, that thinking might be shifting: OPEC+ sources said adding more oil was being looked at as a scenario.

The White House, which raised concerns about high prices, said it was in communications with OPEC and looking at how to address the cost of oil.

(5) Policy Rate Decisions for Australia and New Zealand

Rates decisions are due in Australia and New Zealand — two countries separated geographically only by the Tasman Sea but worlds apart on monetary policy.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand looks set to pull the trigger on Wednesday, with markets all but certain of a quarter point increase in the key rate to 0.5% RBNZWATCH. Governor Adrian Orr and crew were ready to become the first in the developed world to hike in August, but a COVID outbreak coinciding with the policy meeting scuppered those plans, leaving the Norges Bank to take the honors.

Australia's Reserve Bank meets on Tuesday and sits at the other end of the hawk-dove spectrum. Despite a red-hot housing market, Governor Philip Lowe threw cold water on markets recently, saying he found it "difficult to understand why rate rises are being priced in next year or early 2023.”

Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

Let’s take a look at 3 top-ranked value stocks this week.

(1) Exelon Corp (EXC Quick QuoteEXC - Free Report) : This is a big Chicago-based electric power utility. I see a $48 share price and a $47.2B market cap. I also see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of F and a Zacks Momentum score of C.

(2) American International Group (AIG Quick QuoteAIG - Free Report) : This is the big multi-line insurer. I see a $55 share price and a $46.9B market cap. I also see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

(3) Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ Quick QuoteCNQ - Free Report) : This is a big oil and gas E&P player up north. I see a $36 share price and a $43.3B market cap. I also see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

Think these large-cap value stocks look good? I don’t.

Key Global Macro

On Monday, there is a Euro Group meeting.

There is an OPEC meeting today.

It is the start of a series of National Days in Mainland China.

On Tuesday, Australia’s Reserve Bank comes out with a rate decision.

The U.S. Markit Composite PMI should be 54.5 last month.

Another National Day in China.

On Wednesday, New Zealand’s central bank comes out with a rate decision.

Yet another National Day in China.

On Thursday, U.S. jobless claims are 340K over the last 4 weeks. We get fresh weekly numbers.

The Fed’s Williams speaks.

On Friday, the U.K. monetary policy minutes come out.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls should be +500K in September, after a +235K number the month prior.

The U.S. household unemployment rate should be 5.1%.

National Day, officially the National Day of the People's Republic of China, is a public holiday in China celebrated annually on October 1st as the national day of the People’s Republic of China, commemorating the formal proclamation of the establishment of the PRC on 1 October 1949.

The Chinese Communist Party victory in the Chinese Civil War resulted in the Kuomintang retreat to Taiwan and the Chinese Communist Revolution whereby the People's Republic of China replaced the Republic of China.

Although it is observed on October 1st, another six days are added to the official holiday, normally in lieu of the two weekend breaks around October 1st, making it a de facto public holiday comprising seven consecutive days, also known as Golden Week, with specifics regulated by the State Council.

Festivities and concerts are usually held nationwide on this day, with a grand military parade and mass pageant event held on select years.

Conclusion

It is always difficult to trade a week where U.S. nonfarm payrolls dominate the thinking of gun-shy stock traders, looking at fully valued stock prices, across the board.

That key macro data always come out on Friday. That data likely steals the thunder of other headline events coming well before it.

Regards,

John Blank