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PCE is behaving as well as can be expected, spending and income remain reasonably OK, but longer-term joblessness appears to be a developing economic headwind.
Tomorrow's Employment Situation is the biggest economic news event of the week, and we hold out hope it may have a positive effect on Friday's trading.
Taking Fed Chair Powell's temperature on his outlook through the rest of the year will take center stage this afternoon, likely between 2:15-2:30pm ET.
PPI came in hotter on headline for the month of August than analysts had been expecting: +0.7% is 30 basis points (bps) higher than the +0.4% consensus.
staffing: Archive
Big Inflation Data Morning: PCE, Income & Spending, Jobless Claims
by Mark Vickery
PCE is behaving as well as can be expected, spending and income remain reasonably OK, but longer-term joblessness appears to be a developing economic headwind.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
consumer-discretionary consumer-staples inflation interest-rate staffing
Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Deere Q4 Earnings All Drop
by Mark Vickery
New jobless claims for last week dropped to 209K -- 20K fewer than analysts were looking for.
DEPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
agriculture earnings industrial-products staffing
Long-Term Jobless Claims Highest in 2 Years; Walmart Meets, Macy's Beats
by Mark Vickery
Continuing Claims rose for the eighth-straight week, to 1.865 million from a slight downward revision.
MSFTPositive Net Change MPositive Net Change WMTNegative Net Change METANegative Net Change
apparel consumer-staples e-commerce earnings retail staffing
Pre-Markets Strong on Higher Bond Rates, Mixed Earnings
by Mark Vickery
While this positive sentiment is welcome, we note bond yield rates going higher this morning.
AZNPositive Net Change TPRNo Net Change
agriculture consumer-discretionary earnings pharmaceuticals staffing
Jobs Cut in Half to 150K; Unemployment +3.9%
by Mark Vickery
Today's headline BLS number is 150K, below the 170-180K expected, and well below the downwardly revised 297K the previous month.
ADPPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
inflation interest-rate staffing
Markets Up Big Again; Apple (AAPL) Beats Modestly
by Mark Vickery
Bond yield rates came down notably from their multi-year highs, with the 2-year back below 5% and the 10-year down to 4.663%.
AAPLPositive Net Change EXPEPositive Net Change BKNGNegative Net Change
consumer-staples earnings staffing travel-leisure
Jobless Claims, Q3 Productivity Up - So Are the Pre-Markets
by Mark Vickery
Much of what we see up on major indices this morning came after much of this economic data was reported.
ADPPositive Net Change SBUXNegative Net Change CROXPositive Net Change
earnings industrial-products staffing
ADP Jobs +113K Lower than Expected; Fed at 2pm
by Mark Vickery
This means we're still creating more than the amount of monthly private-sector jobs the economy needs to offset retiring Baby Boomers.
ADPPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
banking inflation interest-rate staffing
Q3 GDP +4.9%, Earnings Beats for UPS, Bristol Myers and Honeywell
by Mark Vickery
In the preliminary Q3 GDP print, consumer spending jumped to +4.0% while private domestic investment roared ahead +8.4%.
AMZNNegative Net Change INTCNegative Net Change FNegative Net Change BMYPositive Net Change HONPositive Net Change UPSNegative Net Change
business-services consumer-discretionary consumer-staples earnings finance inflation interest-rate retail staffing
Q3 Earnings Mixed, Big Results Expected After-Hours
by Mark Vickery
The Dow is the sole major index in the green this morning, boosted by Microsoft's strong performance yesterday afternoon.
BAPositive Net Change AAPLPositive Net Change IBMPositive Net Change ADPPositive Net Change TMOPositive Net Change NOWPositive Net Change METANegative Net Change
aerospace earnings industrial-products staffing
Jobs Numbers Double to 336K on Low Wage Growth
by Mark Vickery
Yes, folks - the "good news is bad news" scenario is not dead yet.
ADPPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
interest-rate staffing
Markets Just Miss Closing in the Green
by Mark Vickery
Tomorrow's Employment Situation is the biggest economic news event of the week, and we hold out hope it may have a positive effect on Friday's trading.
NVDANegative Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change LEVIPositive Net Change
apparel earnings staffing
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims Down Again
by Mark Vickery
What we continue to see is overall strength, even if private-sector payrolls yesterday melted down to sub-100K for the first time in quite a while.
ADPPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance staffing
Markets Close in the Green; Services Prints Modest
by Mark Vickery
Even though it was a little topsy-turvy on the indices, all four majors finished in the green.
ADPPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
staffing travel-leisure
ADP +89K, Cutting Estimates in Half; Pre-Markets Up
by Mark Vickery
ADP's September headline is much lower than expected, half the 150-160K estimates we were seeing before the release.
ADPPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
staffing
GOP Speaker Ousted, Markets Fall Again
by Mark Vickery
Even big jobs numbers later this week might not be big enough to counteract the dysfunction at the nation's capitol.
ADPPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
finance staffing
Pre-Markets Down on 4.7% 10-Year; JOLTS Data This Morning
by Mark Vickery
The 10-year bond yield continues to be an albatross around the neck of equities trading, currently bringing returns of 4.71%.
ADPPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
banking finance interest-rate staffing
A Nonfarm Payroll Week: Global Week Ahead
by John Blank
Markets kick off the all-important final quarter of the year after a game-changer of a last few months, driven largely by a +30% surge in oil prices.
CEGPositive Net Change ROSTPositive Net Change ONNegative Net Change
emerging-markets energy finance staffing
New Jobless Claims 204K, Q2 GDP +2.1%, Pre-Markets Still Down
by Mark Vickery
Tomorrow will be the final trading day of September -- a month we'll all be happy to exit.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
consumer-discretionary consumer-staples staffing transportation
On Work Stoppages and Stock Market Futures
by Mark Vickery
The last time we saw one a federal government shutdown was over Christmas and New Year's in 2018-19.
MCOPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
auto-tires-trucks finance staffing
Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, U.S. Deficit All Shrink
by Mark Vickery
Through the first three weeks of September, the month is living up to its reputation as a bull-market killer.
FDXPositive Net Change QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
earnings finance staffing transportation
Early Traders Seek Value Ahead of Fed Decision
by Mark Vickery
Taking Fed Chair Powell's temperature on his outlook through the rest of the year will take center stage this afternoon, likely between 2:15-2:30pm ET.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
auto-tires-trucks staffing
PPI, Retail Sales, Jobless Claims All Higher
by Mark Vickery
PPI came in hotter on headline for the month of August than analysts had been expecting: +0.7% is 30 basis points (bps) higher than the +0.4% consensus.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
basic-materials retail staffing
Markets Flatten Post-CPI Report; PPI, Jobless Claims Thursday
by Mark Vickery
Even though CPI numbers were a little warmer than we'd have preferred, on year over year core this was the lowest read in almost two years.
QQQNegative Net Change SPYPositive Net Change DIAPositive Net Change
consumer-discretionary inflation interest-rate retail staffing
Pre-Markets Drifting Ahead of CPI, UAW News
by Mark Vickery
Core CPI tomorrow is expected to take another step down, and the Fed is expected to pause interest rates next week.
FNegative Net Change GMNo Net Change STLAPositive Net Change
auto-tires-trucks automation construction consumer-discretionary consumer-staples staffing