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Market Bounce-back Endures; ADP Numbers On Deck

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A bounce-back on stock indexes today was in the cards during pre-market trading this Tuesday, and a nice day into the green is what we obtained. Although stocks cooled in the final half-hour of trading during the regular session, they still brought healthy results across the board: the Dow finished +0.92%, +313 points (although it had been 400+ points at session highs), the S&P 500 reached +1.05%, the Nasdaq +1.25% and the small-cap Russell 200 +0.50%.

For the Nasdaq, it was the biggest single-day gain in more than six weeks. The tech-heavy index is currently -6% below all-time highs reached earlier this year. The S&P is now -4% from the all-time high of its own. The Dow is still down in the past week, although marginally. After a few big sell-off days, it’s not such a bad showing. In fact, only the Russell is closer to where it was five trading sessions ago than the Dow (of the major indexes) is.

Financials performed well on the day, +1.8%, with Q3 earnings a little more than a week ago for the big banks like JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) . Tech posted an admirable bounce, +1.5%, following a bad day Monday as Facebook led negative news headlines. Energy kept up its relative strength, +0.6%, as natural gas grew another 9% on the day — a 13-year high. This is obviously good news for holders of the commodity, though nat-gas consumers in Europe right now may have a different opinion.

Only Utilities and Real Estate traded down among major sectors today, selling off a bit from stronger performances in recent weeks. In all, we see today as a reflex bounce from yesterday’s sell-off: some bargain shopping, other rotation toward relative undervalue. Considering the specter of how far we’ve come from the bottom of the cycle when the Covid shutdown was at its deepest, and problems we see in China, the U.S. Congress and elsewhere going forward, this is not a bad place to be currently.

Earlier today, we saw better-than-expected September Services reports for both Markit PMI and ISM: the former brought 54.9, a half-point higher than expected and August’s headline number; the latter was 190 basis points ahead of expectations, to 61.9%, and above the previous month’s unrevised 61.7%. Easily in growth territory (50 is the point of demarcation for both), it’s nice to see the Services business continuing at a relatively robust pace.

Hopefully, this will have some bearing on tomorrow’s monthly private-sector payroll report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) for September. We saw disappointing results in August for both ADP numbers and nonfarm payrolls, which report September results this Friday morning. Currently, expectations are for 425K new jobs having been created in the private sector last month, better than the 374K reported for August, during the height of Delta-variant fears.

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