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Applying results through Friday, November 5th, we have Q3 results from 445 S&P 500 members or 89.2% of the index’s total membership.
Total earnings (aggregate net income) for these companies are up:
- +42.9% from the same period last year, on
- +18.6% higher revenues, while
- 80.2% beat EPS estimates, and
- 74.4% beat revenue estimates
- The proportion of companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates is 62.9%
A chart (below) shows how the Q3 blended beats percentage compare to other recent periods -- for this same group of 445 index members.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
For Tech, Q3 results are in for 82.5% of the sector’s S&P 500 market cap.
- Total Q3 earnings for these Tech companies are up +35.8% from the same period last year on
- +17.3% higher revenues, while
- 86.4% beat EPS estimates, and
- 71.2% beat revenue estimates
Expectations for Q3 and Beyond
Looking at the quarter as a whole, combining the actual results that have come out with estimates for the still-to-come companies, total Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to be up:
- +39.7% from the same period last year on
- +16.5% higher revenues
The next chart (below) presents the earnings and revenue growth picture on a quarterly basis, with expectations for 2021 Q3 contrasted with the actual growth achieved over the preceding four quarters and estimates for the following three.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A final chart (below) shows the comparable picture on an annual basis.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders and investors…
(1) When do central bank rate hikes matter…to stocks?
World markets are often shaken up by investors switching between risk-on or risk-off.
To mix things up, sentiment these days is being driven by a hikes on/hikes off mindset.
One day, it's about major central banks hiking rates soon (sell bonds, buy bank stocks) and the next, it's about them putting off tightening for as long as possible (buy bonds, send stocks to new record highs).
The latter view currently dominates after the biggest central banks pushed back against aggressive rate-hike bets. The Bank of England just defied rate-hike expectations by keeping policy unchanged.
But uncertainty over the rates outlook remains high. And that means the swing between 'hikes on' and 'hikes off' days could become the norm.
Brace for more volatility.
(2) A fresh U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out Wednesday
The U.S. Consumer Price Index out on Wednesday, is forecast to have climbed 0.5% in October after a 0.4% rise in September as Americans paid more for food, rent and other goods.
Whether the current rise in prices is fleeting, stemming from temporary effects as the economy emerges from the pandemic, or signals the start a new upward trend, remains to be seen.
The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting held to the belief that high inflation would prove "transitory" though it acknowledged that global supply difficulties add to inflation risks.
It has managed to unveil a tapering of monthly bond buys without triggering a market "tantrum." A strong inflation print that renews rate-hike talk could change that.
(3) European blue chips report next week
European blue-chips reporting next week includes financials Allianz, Aviva and Zurich Insurance, drug makers Merck and AstraZeneca and steelmaker Arcelor Mittal.
European stocks have never been higher, and the latest slew of earnings could prove a catalyst for fresh peaks.
Expectations for Q3 profit growth have surged to 57.2% year-on-year from 47.6% two weeks ago; so far almost 66% of companies have beaten expectations.
The fear of missing out on the post COVID-19 recovery and negative "real" bond yields help explain stock market’s resilience. But how long can the party last? After all, the pent-up profit recovery from the COVID-19 2020 recession is expected to slow in 2022.
(4) Important international trade data hits the tape
Accommodative policies in the developed world have fueled huge demand for consumer goods, driving this year's trade rebound.
Exports from emerging economies, from raw materials to semiconductors, have surged. Shortages and price rises have ensued.
But trade may now be at a crossroads. Economists predict post-COVID normality will allow Western consumers to spend less on goods and more on travel and dining out. That could allow inventories to rise and cool the goods trade in early-2022.
Data on Sunday will show whether Chinese power shortages slowed exports and if a cooling economy is hurting imports.
A U.S. export slump has blown its trade deficit to record highs, so Tuesday's German data will be watched after August export volumes fell for the first time in 15 months.
Finally, Monday may show semiconductor powerhouse Taiwan posting a 16th month of export growth.
(5) The Chinese Communist Party gathers
A gathering of China's Communist Party in Beijing is expected to pass an historical resolution, laying the foundation for President Xi to serve an unprecedented third term.
The first such resolution, in 1945, set the stage for Mao Zedong to become paramount leader while the second, in 1981, laid the groundwork for Deng Xioaping's reform era.
This one may signal that Xi's path is the one ahead, leading to "common prosperity" and away from growth at all costs.
Unlikely to be mentioned is the precarity of the moment, with China's growth engines sputtering and credit markets crumbling just as global monetary policy is in flux. Caveat emptor.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Don’t be afraid to look beyond the fashionable chip stocks. Let me show you what I mean.
(1) Xilinx : This is a $198 a share programmable logic chip stock with a market cap of $45.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(2) Stellantis (STLA - Free Report) : This is a U.S.-foreign auto maker (formed in 2021 by the merger of Fiat-Chrysler and French PSA Group). Shares trade at $20 each now, making for a market cap of $41.3B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(3) Nutrien (NTR - Free Report) : This is a fertilizer company. Shares trade at $67 each, and the market cap is $38.3B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
Key Global Macro
Reuters has the right macro and event narrative for us this week.
First, the highest-ranking members of the Chinese Communist Party will gather in the coming days and are set to green-light another term for President Xi Jinping.
Second, U.S. inflation numbers may test the Federal Reserve's view of price pressures as transitory.
Finally, trade data and more Q3 company earnings will show whether supply-chain glitches are waning.
Out Sunday, mainland China’s exports rose +27.1%, easily beating consensus +16.9% y/y growth. Imports also beat expectations , up +20.6% from a consensus +15.3% y/y growth.
On Monday, there is a Eurogroup meeting.
The Swiss unemployment rate came in 10 basis points below expectations to +2.6%.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for October comes out. +8.7% y/y is the consensus. +8.6% y/y was the prior reading.
The USDA WASDE agricultural commodity report comes out.
On Wednesday, mainland China’s PPI should be +12.0% y/y in October. Sounds high? It is.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out. I see a +0.5% m/m rise in the cards for October, after a +0.4% rise in September. Again, it is incrementally higher.
On Thursday, is U.S. Veteran’s Day and Remembrance Day in Canada.
On Friday, University of Michigan sentiment for November comes out 71.7 was the reading in October.
Image: Bigstock
Sheraz Mian's Q3 Earnings Scorecard: Global Week Ahead
The Global Week Ahead brings Q3 results from more than 850 companies, including 13 S&P 500 members.
The S&P 500 members reporting results this week include three key players:
Applying results through Friday, November 5th, we have Q3 results from 445 S&P 500 members or 89.2% of the index’s total membership.
Total earnings (aggregate net income) for these companies are up:
A chart (below) shows how the Q3 blended beats percentage compare to other recent periods -- for this same group of 445 index members.
For Tech, Q3 results are in for 82.5% of the sector’s S&P 500 market cap.
Expectations for Q3 and Beyond
Looking at the quarter as a whole, combining the actual results that have come out with estimates for the still-to-come companies, total Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to be up:
The next chart (below) presents the earnings and revenue growth picture on a quarterly basis, with expectations for 2021 Q3 contrasted with the actual growth achieved over the preceding four quarters and estimates for the following three.
A final chart (below) shows the comparable picture on an annual basis.
For a detailed look at the overall earnings picture, including expectations for the coming periods, please check out our weekly Earnings Trends report >>>>Looking At Margins in the Face of Inflationary and Logistical Issues
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders and investors…
(1) When do central bank rate hikes matter…to stocks?
World markets are often shaken up by investors switching between risk-on or risk-off.
To mix things up, sentiment these days is being driven by a hikes on/hikes off mindset.
One day, it's about major central banks hiking rates soon (sell bonds, buy bank stocks) and the next, it's about them putting off tightening for as long as possible (buy bonds, send stocks to new record highs).
The latter view currently dominates after the biggest central banks pushed back against aggressive rate-hike bets. The Bank of England just defied rate-hike expectations by keeping policy unchanged.
But uncertainty over the rates outlook remains high. And that means the swing between 'hikes on' and 'hikes off' days could become the norm.
Brace for more volatility.
(2) A fresh U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out Wednesday
The U.S. Consumer Price Index out on Wednesday, is forecast to have climbed 0.5% in October after a 0.4% rise in September as Americans paid more for food, rent and other goods.
Whether the current rise in prices is fleeting, stemming from temporary effects as the economy emerges from the pandemic, or signals the start a new upward trend, remains to be seen.
The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting held to the belief that high inflation would prove "transitory" though it acknowledged that global supply difficulties add to inflation risks.
It has managed to unveil a tapering of monthly bond buys without triggering a market "tantrum." A strong inflation print that renews rate-hike talk could change that.
(3) European blue chips report next week
European blue-chips reporting next week includes financials Allianz, Aviva and Zurich Insurance, drug makers Merck and AstraZeneca and steelmaker Arcelor Mittal.
European stocks have never been higher, and the latest slew of earnings could prove a catalyst for fresh peaks.
Expectations for Q3 profit growth have surged to 57.2% year-on-year from 47.6% two weeks ago; so far almost 66% of companies have beaten expectations.
The fear of missing out on the post COVID-19 recovery and negative "real" bond yields help explain stock market’s resilience. But how long can the party last? After all, the pent-up profit recovery from the COVID-19 2020 recession is expected to slow in 2022.
(4) Important international trade data hits the tape
Accommodative policies in the developed world have fueled huge demand for consumer goods, driving this year's trade rebound.
Exports from emerging economies, from raw materials to semiconductors, have surged. Shortages and price rises have ensued.
But trade may now be at a crossroads. Economists predict post-COVID normality will allow Western consumers to spend less on goods and more on travel and dining out. That could allow inventories to rise and cool the goods trade in early-2022.
Data on Sunday will show whether Chinese power shortages slowed exports and if a cooling economy is hurting imports.
A U.S. export slump has blown its trade deficit to record highs, so Tuesday's German data will be watched after August export volumes fell for the first time in 15 months.
Finally, Monday may show semiconductor powerhouse Taiwan posting a 16th month of export growth.
(5) The Chinese Communist Party gathers
A gathering of China's Communist Party in Beijing is expected to pass an historical resolution, laying the foundation for President Xi to serve an unprecedented third term.
The first such resolution, in 1945, set the stage for Mao Zedong to become paramount leader while the second, in 1981, laid the groundwork for Deng Xioaping's reform era.
This one may signal that Xi's path is the one ahead, leading to "common prosperity" and away from growth at all costs.
Unlikely to be mentioned is the precarity of the moment, with China's growth engines sputtering and credit markets crumbling just as global monetary policy is in flux. Caveat emptor.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Don’t be afraid to look beyond the fashionable chip stocks. Let me show you what I mean.
(1) Xilinx : This is a $198 a share programmable logic chip stock with a market cap of $45.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of F and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(2) Stellantis (STLA - Free Report) : This is a U.S.-foreign auto maker (formed in 2021 by the merger of Fiat-Chrysler and French PSA Group). Shares trade at $20 each now, making for a market cap of $41.3B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(3) Nutrien (NTR - Free Report) : This is a fertilizer company. Shares trade at $67 each, and the market cap is $38.3B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
Key Global Macro
Reuters has the right macro and event narrative for us this week.
First, the highest-ranking members of the Chinese Communist Party will gather in the coming days and are set to green-light another term for President Xi Jinping.
Second, U.S. inflation numbers may test the Federal Reserve's view of price pressures as transitory.
Finally, trade data and more Q3 company earnings will show whether supply-chain glitches are waning.
Out Sunday, mainland China’s exports rose +27.1%, easily beating consensus +16.9% y/y growth. Imports also beat expectations , up +20.6% from a consensus +15.3% y/y growth.
On Monday, there is a Eurogroup meeting.
The Swiss unemployment rate came in 10 basis points below expectations to +2.6%.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for October comes out. +8.7% y/y is the consensus. +8.6% y/y was the prior reading.
The USDA WASDE agricultural commodity report comes out.
On Wednesday, mainland China’s PPI should be +12.0% y/y in October. Sounds high? It is.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes out. I see a +0.5% m/m rise in the cards for October, after a +0.4% rise in September. Again, it is incrementally higher.
On Thursday, is U.S. Veteran’s Day and Remembrance Day in Canada.
On Friday, University of Michigan sentiment for November comes out 71.7 was the reading in October.
U.S. JOLTS job openings data comes out.
The weekly Baker-Hughes rig counts come out.
Conclusion
Take a look thru the entirely of Sheraz Mian’s Zacks Earnings Report.
Q3 season is wrapping up.
S&P 500 earnings, revenues and outlooks are nearly final.
It is comprehensive.
That’s it for me.
Warm regards,
John Blank