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In the Global Week Ahead, the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Banco Central do Brasil and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deliver monetary policy assessments.
-Expect the Bank of England to lift rates for the 2nd time in less than two months.
- The ECB is run by the world’s biggest dove.
- Brazil’s central bank is facing very high inflation rates.
- The RBA? We shall see.
Regardless of how this global money narrative goes, Friday's U.S. nonfarm payroll data will regain the spotlight.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders.
(1) On Friday, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for January Come Out
The Federal Reserve is clearly out to tame inflation and reckons a "historically tight" labor market gives it plenty of room to raise rates without hurting jobs growth.
January jobs data out Friday will likely confirm that view. Economists polled by Reuters forecast the U.S. economy created 238,000 new jobs versus 199,000 in December, when employment rose less than expected due to worker shortages.
Proof of a tighter jobs market and wage gains may fuel further bets on how aggressive the Fed will be: markets now anticipate roughly five quarter-point rate hikes by year-end.
Earnings season, meanwhile, rolls on with Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL - Free Report) and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) reporting on Feb. 1 and Feb. 3, respectively.
But with rate-hike jitters gripping Wall Street, earnings may play second fiddle to the jobs data and Fed speak.
(2) On Thursday, Expect the Bank of England (BoE) to Hike Rates. Again.
At Thursday's Bank of England meeting, expect interest rates to rise to 0.5% from 0.25%, to curb inflation running at its highest in almost 30 years.
In December, the BoE became the world's first major central bank to tighten policy and markets anticipate four 25 basis points rises by end-2022. Now investors are seeking guidance on how fast the bank expects to proceed.
The big question — one many central banks are grappling with — is whether a series of rate hikes now can curb inflation before price pressures trigger higher wage demands, and feed into generally higher price pressures.
Watch out for comments from Governor Andrew Bailey about the strength of the labor market, wage growth, and his take on how fast inflationary pressures are building beyond supply chain disruptions and spiking energy prices.
(3) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (the ECB) Meets, Too
The same contentious topic — inflation — is dividing European Central Bank officials.
Euro-area inflation is at a record high 5% and January data, released Wednesday, could provide the hawks with fresh ammunition to press for a policy shift.
Comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde suggest inflation will drop back below its 2% target this year as pressures from high energy prices and supply bottlenecks ease.
She may push back against market pricing for rate rises this year, which is out of sync with ECB messaging. The spillover from U.S. rate-hike bets is a potential headache for officials keen to avoid an unwanted tightening of monetary conditions.
So, Thursday's meeting could prove lively even if no immediate action is expected; the ECB has already outlined plans to wrap up its PEPP stimulus scheme.
(4) The Reserve Bank of Australia Meets Tuesday
As rate-hiking campaigns gather pace in other big economies, central bank doves are becoming an endangered species down-under.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday against the backdrop of the hottest consumer inflation since 2014 and strongest labor market since 2008, piling pressure on RBA Governor Philip Lowe to take action.
Lowe has insisted a 2022 rate rise is unlikely, but economists are split on whether the RBA will capitulate. Traders, though, have long wagered Lowe is behind the inflation curve, and are pricing a rate hike in May, followed by at least three more by year-end.
(5) Major European Banks Will Share Quarterly Earnings Results
Europe's banks, the ugly ducklings of international finance, have long been upstaged by their successful U.S. rivals, who trump them on profits and valuation.
Now they are trying to catch up. In the coming days, more of those banks will set out their stall with results for 2021.
The long-feared wave of unpaid debt has largely been banished by Europe's governments, who have borrowed ever more to bail out the economy and, indirectly, their banks.
Now, with the prospect of gradually rising interest rates, most European banks, barring scandal-stricken Credit Suisse, are looking to put their best foot forward.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Oil prices are rising.
To no surprise, I see three Zacks #1 Rank oil major stocks on our list.
(1) Exxon Mobil (XOM - Free Report) : This is a $75 a share stock. The market cap is $318B. That used to sound high before the Tech mega-caps emerged. I note a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(2) PetroChina : This is a $50.50 a share stock. The market cap is $92.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(3) BP (BP - Free Report) : This is a $31.50 a share stock. The market cap is $103.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
The shared metric: A’s for Zacks Momentum.
That is a tell, and something long-term investors should cautious about.
Key Global Macro
The dominant report is Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls.
But the manufacturing PMIs out all week long are worthy too.
On Monday, Mainland China’s NBS manufacturing PMI comes out for JAN. Consensus is 50.0. Meh! This never changes.
The Chicago PMI should be 62.5 in JAN, after 63.1 in DEC.
On Tuesday, Japan’s Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for JAN comes out. DEC was 54.6.
Australia’s RBA commodity index has been up +25.7% y/y. We get an update.
The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for JAN comes out. DEC was 55.0.
U.S. JOLTS job opening data comes out. 10.56M was the prior.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting starts.
The Banco Central do Brasil monetary policy committee meeting begins, as well.
Image: Bigstock
Nonfarm Payrolls Will Rule: Global Week Ahead
Last week, the Federal Reserve met.
In the Global Week Ahead, the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Banco Central do Brasil and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deliver monetary policy assessments.
Regardless of how this global money narrative goes, Friday's U.S. nonfarm payroll data will regain the spotlight.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders.
(1) On Friday, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for January Come Out
The Federal Reserve is clearly out to tame inflation and reckons a "historically tight" labor market gives it plenty of room to raise rates without hurting jobs growth.
January jobs data out Friday will likely confirm that view. Economists polled by Reuters forecast the U.S. economy created 238,000 new jobs versus 199,000 in December, when employment rose less than expected due to worker shortages.
Proof of a tighter jobs market and wage gains may fuel further bets on how aggressive the Fed will be: markets now anticipate roughly five quarter-point rate hikes by year-end.
Earnings season, meanwhile, rolls on with Google parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL - Free Report) and Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) reporting on Feb. 1 and Feb. 3, respectively.
But with rate-hike jitters gripping Wall Street, earnings may play second fiddle to the jobs data and Fed speak.
(2) On Thursday, Expect the Bank of England (BoE) to Hike Rates. Again.
At Thursday's Bank of England meeting, expect interest rates to rise to 0.5% from 0.25%, to curb inflation running at its highest in almost 30 years.
In December, the BoE became the world's first major central bank to tighten policy and markets anticipate four 25 basis points rises by end-2022. Now investors are seeking guidance on how fast the bank expects to proceed.
The big question — one many central banks are grappling with — is whether a series of rate hikes now can curb inflation before price pressures trigger higher wage demands, and feed into generally higher price pressures.
Watch out for comments from Governor Andrew Bailey about the strength of the labor market, wage growth, and his take on how fast inflationary pressures are building beyond supply chain disruptions and spiking energy prices.
(3) On Thursday, the European Central Bank (the ECB) Meets, Too
The same contentious topic — inflation — is dividing European Central Bank officials.
Euro-area inflation is at a record high 5% and January data, released Wednesday, could provide the hawks with fresh ammunition to press for a policy shift.
Comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde suggest inflation will drop back below its 2% target this year as pressures from high energy prices and supply bottlenecks ease.
She may push back against market pricing for rate rises this year, which is out of sync with ECB messaging. The spillover from U.S. rate-hike bets is a potential headache for officials keen to avoid an unwanted tightening of monetary conditions.
So, Thursday's meeting could prove lively even if no immediate action is expected; the ECB has already outlined plans to wrap up its PEPP stimulus scheme.
(4) The Reserve Bank of Australia Meets Tuesday
As rate-hiking campaigns gather pace in other big economies, central bank doves are becoming an endangered species down-under.
The Reserve Bank of Australia meets Tuesday against the backdrop of the hottest consumer inflation since 2014 and strongest labor market since 2008, piling pressure on RBA Governor Philip Lowe to take action.
Lowe has insisted a 2022 rate rise is unlikely, but economists are split on whether the RBA will capitulate. Traders, though, have long wagered Lowe is behind the inflation curve, and are pricing a rate hike in May, followed by at least three more by year-end.
(5) Major European Banks Will Share Quarterly Earnings Results
Europe's banks, the ugly ducklings of international finance, have long been upstaged by their successful U.S. rivals, who trump them on profits and valuation.
Now they are trying to catch up. In the coming days, more of those banks will set out their stall with results for 2021.
The long-feared wave of unpaid debt has largely been banished by Europe's governments, who have borrowed ever more to bail out the economy and, indirectly, their banks.
Now, with the prospect of gradually rising interest rates, most European banks, barring scandal-stricken Credit Suisse, are looking to put their best foot forward.
Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Oil prices are rising.
To no surprise, I see three Zacks #1 Rank oil major stocks on our list.
(1) Exxon Mobil (XOM - Free Report) : This is a $75 a share stock. The market cap is $318B. That used to sound high before the Tech mega-caps emerged. I note a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(2) PetroChina : This is a $50.50 a share stock. The market cap is $92.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of D, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(3) BP (BP - Free Report) : This is a $31.50 a share stock. The market cap is $103.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of B, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
The shared metric: A’s for Zacks Momentum.
That is a tell, and something long-term investors should cautious about.
Key Global Macro
The dominant report is Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls.
But the manufacturing PMIs out all week long are worthy too.
On Monday, Mainland China’s NBS manufacturing PMI comes out for JAN. Consensus is 50.0. Meh! This never changes.
The Chicago PMI should be 62.5 in JAN, after 63.1 in DEC.
On Tuesday, Japan’s Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI for JAN comes out. DEC was 54.6.
Australia’s RBA commodity index has been up +25.7% y/y. We get an update.
The U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI for JAN comes out. DEC was 55.0.
U.S. JOLTS job opening data comes out. 10.56M was the prior.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting starts.
The Banco Central do Brasil monetary policy committee meeting begins, as well.
Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) reports.
On Wednesday, U.S. ADP private payrolls hit. +250K is consensus.
Meta reports.
On Thursday, the Euro Area manufacturing PMI comes out for JAN. DEC was 59.0.
The Bank of England (BoE) issues its bank rate decision.
A European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision statement happens in Frankfurt.
Amazon (AMZN - Free Report) reports.
On Friday, U.S. nonfarm payrolls should be up +238K and the household unemployment rate should be 3.9%.
Conclusion
What would I focus on this week?
This looks straightforward.
Three big tech reports are Alphabet on Tuesday, Meta on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday.
Then, on Friday, the Global Week Ahead closes up nicely with JAN U.S. nonfarm payroll report, the first one for the New Year of 2022.
That’s it for me.
Have a great trading week!
Warm regards,
John Blank