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What's in Store for Mid-America Apartment's (MAA) Q4 Earnings?
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Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA - Free Report) — commonly known as MAA — is slated to report fourth-quarter and full year 2021 results on Feb 2, after market close MAA’s quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.
The Germantown, TN-based residential real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered a surprise of 4.09% in terms of FFO per share in the last reported quarter. The quarterly results were driven by an increase in the average effective rent per unit for the same-store portfolio.
Over the trailing four quarters, MAA surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, the average being 2.40%. This is depicted in the chart below:
MidAmerica Apartment Communities, Inc. Price and Consensus
Let’s see how things have shaped up for the announcement.
Factors to Consider
For the U.S. apartment market, the year 2021 appeared to be robust, with renter demand continuing to surge significantly. Net demand aggregated more than 673,000 units, surpassing the prior high set in 2000 by a whopping 66%, per a report from the real estate technology and analytics firm, RealPage.
Household formation seemed to have taken place at a faster pace and fueled demand for apartments as well as other types of housing. Also, renter incomes continued to rise. Limited availability led to price appreciation and effective asking rents on new leases increased 14.4% in 2021.
Moreover, for the first time, the nation’s apartment market experienced higher occupancy in the fourth quarter, which is otherwise considered a seasonally slow leasing period. This increase can be attributed to the pandemic that disrupted the seasonal behavior. In the fourth quarter, U.S. occupancy climbed 30 basis points (bps), touching 97.4% at the end of the year, contrary to a decline of an average of 40 bps during the said period in the past three decades.
With a well-diversified portfolio, MAA is poised to have benefited from this improving trend. The favorable in-migration trends of jobs and households in the Sun Belt sub-markets are likely to have spurred demand and hiked rent for MAA’s communities during the fourthquarter. Additionally, MAA’s focus on making strategic redevelopments augurs well.
Per management’s November investor conference presentation, average blended pricing growth for leases compared with the prior lease at MAA’s same-store portfolio improved to 16.3% in October from the 15% reported in the third quarter. However, as of October 2021, the average physical occupancy for the same-store portfolio was 95.9%, down from96.4% reported in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $464 million, suggesting a 9.53% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The same-store revenues are projected at $457 million, indicating a 14.8% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
Prior to the fourth-quarter earnings release, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has been revised 1.1% upward to $1.87 over the past two months. This calls for year-over year growth of 13.3%.
However, elevated supply might have put pressure on the rental rates and affected the revenue growth tempo during the reported quarter.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO per share has been revised marginally upward to $6.98 over the past two months. The figure indicates a 9.5% increase from the year-earlier reported figure while the same for revenues stands at$1.78 billion.
The management projects 2021 core FFO per share at $6.88-$7.00, the mid-point being $6.94.
Here is what our quantitative model predicts:
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a positive surprise in terms of FFO per share for MAA this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an FFO beat. However, that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: MAA has an Earnings ESP of -0.38%.
Zacks Rank: MAA currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some stocks like Alpine Income Properties (PINE - Free Report) , EastGroup Properties (EGP - Free Report) and Highwoods Properties (HIW - Free Report) , which are worth considering from the REIT sector, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to deliver a surprise this reporting cycle:
AlpineIncome Properties, slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 10, has an Earnings ESP of +10.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
EastGroup Properties, scheduled to report quarterly figures on Feb 8, has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently.
Highwoods Properties, slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 8, has an Earnings ESP of +2.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represent funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
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What's in Store for Mid-America Apartment's (MAA) Q4 Earnings?
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA - Free Report) — commonly known as MAA — is slated to report fourth-quarter and full year 2021 results on Feb 2, after market close MAA’s quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.
The Germantown, TN-based residential real estate investment trust (REIT) delivered a surprise of 4.09% in terms of FFO per share in the last reported quarter. The quarterly results were driven by an increase in the average effective rent per unit for the same-store portfolio.
Over the trailing four quarters, MAA surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on all occasions, the average being 2.40%. This is depicted in the chart below:
MidAmerica Apartment Communities, Inc. Price and Consensus
MidAmerica Apartment Communities, Inc. price-consensus-chart | MidAmerica Apartment Communities, Inc. Quote
Let’s see how things have shaped up for the announcement.
Factors to Consider
For the U.S. apartment market, the year 2021 appeared to be robust, with renter demand continuing to surge significantly. Net demand aggregated more than 673,000 units, surpassing the prior high set in 2000 by a whopping 66%, per a report from the real estate technology and analytics firm, RealPage.
Household formation seemed to have taken place at a faster pace and fueled demand for apartments as well as other types of housing. Also, renter incomes continued to rise. Limited availability led to price appreciation and effective asking rents on new leases increased 14.4% in 2021.
Moreover, for the first time, the nation’s apartment market experienced higher occupancy in the fourth quarter, which is otherwise considered a seasonally slow leasing period. This increase can be attributed to the pandemic that disrupted the seasonal behavior. In the fourth quarter, U.S. occupancy climbed 30 basis points (bps), touching 97.4% at the end of the year, contrary to a decline of an average of 40 bps during the said period in the past three decades.
With a well-diversified portfolio, MAA is poised to have benefited from this improving trend. The favorable in-migration trends of jobs and households in the Sun Belt sub-markets are likely to have spurred demand and hiked rent for MAA’s communities during the fourthquarter. Additionally, MAA’s focus on making strategic redevelopments augurs well.
Per management’s November investor conference presentation, average blended pricing growth for leases compared with the prior lease at MAA’s same-store portfolio improved to 16.3% in October from the 15% reported in the third quarter. However, as of October 2021, the average physical occupancy for the same-store portfolio was 95.9%, down from96.4% reported in the third quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $464 million, suggesting a 9.53% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The same-store revenues are projected at $457 million, indicating a 14.8% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.
Prior to the fourth-quarter earnings release, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has been revised 1.1% upward to $1.87 over the past two months. This calls for year-over year growth of 13.3%.
However, elevated supply might have put pressure on the rental rates and affected the revenue growth tempo during the reported quarter.
For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO per share has been revised marginally upward to $6.98 over the past two months. The figure indicates a 9.5% increase from the year-earlier reported figure while the same for revenues stands at$1.78 billion.
The management projects 2021 core FFO per share at $6.88-$7.00, the mid-point being $6.94.
Here is what our quantitative model predicts:
Our proven model does not conclusively predict a positive surprise in terms of FFO per share for MAA this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an FFO beat. However, that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: MAA has an Earnings ESP of -0.38%.
Zacks Rank: MAA currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some stocks like Alpine Income Properties (PINE - Free Report) , EastGroup Properties (EGP - Free Report) and Highwoods Properties (HIW - Free Report) , which are worth considering from the REIT sector, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to deliver a surprise this reporting cycle:
AlpineIncome Properties, slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 10, has an Earnings ESP of +10.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
EastGroup Properties, scheduled to report quarterly figures on Feb 8, has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently.
Highwoods Properties, slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 8, has an Earnings ESP of +2.67% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represent funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.