Back to top

Image: Bigstock

UDR to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Read MoreHide Full Article

UDR Inc. (UDR - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter and full year 2021 earnings on Feb 8, after the market closes. Results will likely reflect growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share from the respective year-ago reported figures.

In the last reported quarter, the FFO as adjusted per share of this Denver, CO-based residential real estate investment trust (REIT) came in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Driven by the pace of economic recovery, there has been an increase in revenues from rental income in the fourth quarter.

In the last four quarters, UDR’s earnings met the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions, missing the mark on the remaining one, the average negative surprise being 0.52%.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Factors to Consider

For the U.S. apartment market, last year appeared to be robust, with renter demand continuing to surge significantly. Net demand aggregated more than 673,000 units, surpassing the prior high set in 2000, by 66%, per a report from the real estate technology and analytics firm, RealPage.

Household formation seemed to have taken place at a faster pace and fueled demand for apartments as well as other types of housing. Also, renter incomes continued to rise. Limited availability led to price appreciation and effective asking rents on new leases increased 14.4% in 2021.

Moreover, for the first time, the nation’s apartment market experienced higher occupancy in the fourth quarter, which is otherwise considered a seasonally slow leasing period. This increase can be attributed to the pandemic that disrupted the seasonal behavior. In the October-December quarter, U.S. occupancy climbed 30 basis points (bps), touching 97.4% at the end of the year, against an average of 40-bps decline during the said period in the past three decades.

With a geographically diverse portfolio and a superior product-mix of A/B quality properties in the urban and sub-urban markets, UDR is likely to have gained from this improving trend. UDR’s portfolio comprises properties throughout the United States, including both coastal and Sunbelt locations. This strategy of maintaining a diversified portfolio across various geographies and price points limits volatility and concentration risks, and helps UDR generate steady operating cash flows.

UDR enjoys a decent balance-sheet position, and is banking on technological moves and process enhancements to fuel growth. UDR focuses on enhancing cost control through its Next Generation Operating Platform. Such efforts to find efficiencies throughout its operating platform are likely to have boosted workforce productivity and residents’ experience during the fourth quarter. Adoption of technology is also anticipated to have bolstered UDR’s margin during the period under review.

Prior to the fourth-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were adequate to gain analyst confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is currently pegged at $340.6 million, indicating a 13.1% year-over-year rise. The consensus mark for average occupancy is pegged at 97%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has been revised 1.9% upward to 54 cents in the past two months. This suggests a year-over year growth of 10.2%.

Nevertheless, a significant exposure to the challenged urban residential assets, where the flexible working environment is still denting demand, might have hurt UDR’s rental rates and occupancy levels.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO per share has been unrevised at $2.01 over the past two months. The figure indicates a 1.5% decrease from the year-earlier reported figure. The same for revenues stands at $1.28 billion.

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a positive surprise in terms of FFO per share for UDR this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an FFO beat. However, that’s not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: UDR has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: UDR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some stocks like Alpine Income Properties (PINE - Free Report) , EastGroup Properties (EGP - Free Report) and MGM Growth Properties , which are worth considering from the REIT sector, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to deliver a surprise this reporting cycle:

AlpineIncome Properties, slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 10, has an Earnings ESP of +10.34% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

EastGroup Properties, scheduled to report quarterly figures on Feb 8, has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and a Zacks Rank of 2, currently.

MGM Growth Properties, slated to release fourth-quarter earnings on Feb 15, has an Earnings ESP of +1.01% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represent funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

Published in