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Why Is Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Up 9.3% Since Last Earnings Report?
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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hawaiian Holdings (HA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 9.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hawaiian Holdings due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Narrower-Than-Expected Loss in Q4
Hawaiian Holdings’ loss (excluding 44 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.37 per share was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.69. Notably, the company reported a loss of $3.71 in the year-ago quarter.
Moreover, quarterly revenues of $494.7 million surged more than 100% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $493.4 million. Despite omicron-led crisis, passenger revenues (contributing 85.5% to the top line) surged 361% year over year to $423.12 million. Scheduled airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, rose 423.1% year over year to 2,979.8 million in the quarter under review. Scheduled capacity (measured in available seat miles) increased 194% to 4,210.1 million. Load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) improved 3100 basis points to 70.8% in the reported quarter as traffic surge outweighed capacity expansion. Passenger revenue per ASM (PRASM) surged 56.8% to 10.05 cents.
Operating revenue per available seat mile (RASM: a key measure of unit revenues) in the quarter rose 13.4% year over year to 11.68 cents for total operations. Average fuel cost per gallon (economic) increased 81.4% to $2.34 in the fourth quarter. Gallons of jet fuel consumed surged 147.1% in the December-end quarter.
Liquidity
As of Dec 31, 2021, Hawaiian Holdings’ unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $1.7 billion. Outstanding debt and finance lease obligations were $1.9 billion
Q1 Outlook
Capacity (or ASMs) is anticipated to decline 10-13% from first-quarter 2019 levels.
Total revenues are anticipated to plunge 31-35% from first-quarter 2019 levels.
Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) is expected to rise 10-13% from first-quarter 2019 numbers.
Gallons of jet fuel consumed are expected to fall 18-21% from first-quarter 2019 level.
Adjusted EBITDA is expected to fall $150-$90 million.
The effective tax rate is anticipated to be at 21% in the first quarter.
Fuel price per gallon is expected to be at $2.53 in first-quarter 2022.
2022 Outlook
Below expectations are in comparison to full-year 2019.
For the current year, the company projects capital expenditures of approximately $105-$125 million (prior guidance: $365-$385 million).
ASM is anticipated between negative 3% and positive 1% from 2019 levels (prior guidance: flat to up 4%).
Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) is expected to move up 3.5-7.5% (prior guidance: up 2-6%)
Gallons of jet fuel consumed is expected to fall 4.5-8.5% (prior guidance: up 0.5% to down 3.5%). Fuel price per gallon is anticipated to be $2.42 (prior guidance: $2.09).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -55.62% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Hawaiian Holdings has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Hawaiian Holdings has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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Why Is Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Up 9.3% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hawaiian Holdings (HA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 9.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hawaiian Holdings due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Narrower-Than-Expected Loss in Q4
Hawaiian Holdings’ loss (excluding 44 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.37 per share was narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.69. Notably, the company reported a loss of $3.71 in the year-ago quarter.
Moreover, quarterly revenues of $494.7 million surged more than 100% year over year and beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $493.4 million. Despite omicron-led crisis, passenger revenues (contributing 85.5% to the top line) surged 361% year over year to $423.12 million. Scheduled airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, rose 423.1% year over year to 2,979.8 million in the quarter under review. Scheduled capacity (measured in available seat miles) increased 194% to 4,210.1 million. Load factor (percentage of seats filled by passengers) improved 3100 basis points to 70.8% in the reported quarter as traffic surge outweighed capacity expansion. Passenger revenue per ASM (PRASM) surged 56.8% to 10.05 cents.
Operating revenue per available seat mile (RASM: a key measure of unit revenues) in the quarter rose 13.4% year over year to 11.68 cents for total operations. Average fuel cost per gallon (economic) increased 81.4% to $2.34 in the fourth quarter. Gallons of jet fuel consumed surged 147.1% in the December-end quarter.
Liquidity
As of Dec 31, 2021, Hawaiian Holdings’ unrestricted cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $1.7 billion. Outstanding debt and finance lease obligations were $1.9 billion
Q1 Outlook
Capacity (or ASMs) is anticipated to decline 10-13% from first-quarter 2019 levels.
Total revenues are anticipated to plunge 31-35% from first-quarter 2019 levels.
Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) is expected to rise 10-13% from first-quarter 2019 numbers.
Gallons of jet fuel consumed are expected to fall 18-21% from first-quarter 2019 level.
Adjusted EBITDA is expected to fall $150-$90 million.
The effective tax rate is anticipated to be at 21% in the first quarter.
Fuel price per gallon is expected to be at $2.53 in first-quarter 2022.
2022 Outlook
Below expectations are in comparison to full-year 2019.
For the current year, the company projects capital expenditures of approximately $105-$125 million (prior guidance: $365-$385 million).
ASM is anticipated between negative 3% and positive 1% from 2019 levels (prior guidance: flat to up 4%).
Costs per ASM (excluding fuel & non-recurring items) is expected to move up 3.5-7.5% (prior guidance: up 2-6%)
Gallons of jet fuel consumed is expected to fall 4.5-8.5% (prior guidance: up 0.5% to down 3.5%). Fuel price per gallon is anticipated to be $2.42 (prior guidance: $2.09).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted -55.62% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, Hawaiian Holdings has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Hawaiian Holdings has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.