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Early Friday Markets Up on Positive Words from... Putin?

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Friday, March 11, 2022

Friday pre-markets are back in the green again, completing what’s been a topsy-turvy week of now-consistent trading volatility. Back in the mid-late 20-teens, we enjoyed a placid period of slow, methodical moves mostly higher. Now we’re all over the place, as vastly differing forces grab the indexes’ steering wheel.

As of now, the Dow is +230 points in Friday’s pre-market, the Nasdaq is +140 and the S&P 500 is +30 points. Buoying sentiment thus far is the news headline out of the Kremlin, where President Putin says he sees a “positive shift” in peace talks with Ukraine. Nice as this sounds, word from Putin is about as bankable as… current assets in a Russian bank.

The U.S., for its part, is revoking Russia’s “favored nation” status in trade. This means we will be rearranging normal trade relations, which had exempted Russian imports like caviar and plywood from tariffs. It’s just the latest step in constricting revenue streams from feeding Putin’s war of aggression versus Ukraine. Russia’s banks have already been removed from SWIFT, the U.S., U.K. and others have outlawed Russian oil and gas imports, and major American businesses are stopping doing business with the country.

Until next week’s Fed meeting, whereby interest rates will climb likely a quarter-point off 2-year lows, and will likely include the expiration of some T-bills and mortgage-backed securities to begin to drain the $9 trillion currently on the balance sheet, we don’t have a ton going on. After today’s open, we’ll see results from a University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, along with 5-year inflation expectations. The Fed meeting commences Tuesday and issues its new policy Wednesday afternoon, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell.

Entering the weekend, despite what Putin is telling the world, bombs continue to drop in Ukraine. The army and citizens of that country have thus far held up better than most experts had predicted, and with most of the rest of the world in allegiance to starve Russia from funds to advance the war, it’s now evolving as a war of attrition. Don’t expect much to change by Monday morning.

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