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Plains All American (PAA) Up 6.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Plains All American Pipeline (PAA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 6.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Plains All American due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Plains All American Q4 Earnings Miss, Revenues Beat

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. reported fourth-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings of 25 cents per unit, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 28 cents by 10.7%. The bottom line also declined 13.8% from the year-ago figure.

For the quarter under review, the partnership reported a GAAP loss of 56 cents per unit against a loss of 11 cents in the year-ago period.

For 2021, Plains All American’s earnings per unit were 95 cents, down 39% from $1.55 a year ago.

Total Revenues

Total revenues of $12,954 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10,787 million by 20.1%. Further, the top line improved 117.2% from $5,963 million reported a year ago. Strong performance of its Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (“NGL”) segment boosted the top line.

For 2021, Plains All American’s total revenues were $42,043 million, up 80.5% from the 2020 figure of $23,290.

Highlights of the Release

For the quarter under review, Plains All American’s total costs and expenses were $12,354 million, up 104.9% year over year. This increase was primarily due to higher purchases and related costs.

Total adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $564 million, up 2% from the year-ago period.

During the quarter, the firm reorganized historical operating segments, namely Transportation, Facilities and Supply and Logistics, into two operating segments: Crude Oil and NGL.

During the quarter, Crude Oil volumes were 7,202 thousand barrels per day (Mbls/d) and NGL sales volume was 148 Mbls/d.

Net interest expenses decreased 1.9% year over year to $106 million.

The firm reduced its debt level by $993 million during 2021, which will lower capital servicing costs.

Segmental Performance

The Crude Oil segment’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $423 million. The performance of this segment was impacted by lower volumes on certain long-haul pipes, the impact of asset sales &the timing of expenses, partially offset by increased Permian gathering volumes.

The NGL Segment’s adjusted EBITDA was $141 million. The performance of this segment was driven by higher seasonal demand and improved NGL sales margin, partially offset by the impact of the Ft. Sask incident.

Financial Update

As of Dec 31, 2021, current assets were $6,137 million compared with $3,665 million at 2020-end.

As of Dec 31, 2021, Plains All American had long-term debt of $8,398 million compared with $9,382 million in the corresponding period of 2020. Free cash flow was $539 million, up 136% from $228 million in the year-ago period.

As of the same date, its long-term debt-to-total book capitalization was 46%, down from 49% at 2020-end.

Guidance

Plains All American’s 2022 adjusted EBITDA expectation is $2,200 million. Free cash flow after distribution for 2022 is expected to be $700 million.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.

The consensus estimate has shifted 68.75% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Plains All American has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. Notably, Plains All American has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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