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ZTO Express (ZTO) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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ZTO Express (ZTO - Free Report) is set to release fourth-quarter 2021 earnings results on Mar 16, after market close.

ZTO does not have an impressive surprise history, as its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate just once in the last four quarters, missing the same on two occasions and matching estimates in the remaining quarter. The average earnings miss is 5.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has been flat at 30 cents per share in the past 60 days.

ZTO Express Cayman Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

ZTO Express Cayman Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

ZTO Express Cayman Inc. price-eps-surprise | ZTO Express Cayman Inc. Quote

Let’s discuss the factors that might have impacted this Shanghai-based courier company’s June-quarter performance.

We expect selling, general and administrative expenses to have been high in the to-be-reported quarter due to escalated compensation and benefits and office expenditures. Additionally, gross margin deterioration (due to intense competition-led decline in average selling prices) is expected to hurt results. Omicron-induced disruptions might also have dented ZTO’s fourth-quarter performance.

However, ZTO Express’ express delivery services segment is likely to have performed well in the fourth quarter on the back of strong parcel volumes. Akin to the last few quarters, parcel volumes are likely to have been aided by rapid e-commerce growth.

Earnings Whispers

The proven Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for ZTO Express this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive earnings surprise. However, this is not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: ZTO Express has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Most Accurate Estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 30 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: ZTO Express currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Highlights of Q3 Earnings

In the last reported quarter, ZTO Express’ earnings of 22 cents per share were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The bottom line declined year over year despite reduction in operating expenses. Total revenues of $1,147 million increased in double digits year over year owing to a rise in revenues at the core express delivery services unit (contributing 90.6% to the top line).

Sectorial Snapshots

Let’s look into some of the already released fourth-quarter 2021 earnings reports from companies within the Zacks Transportation sector.

CSX Corporation (CSX - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2021 earnings of 42 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. The bottom line increased in double digits year over year owing to higher revenues.

CSX’s total revenues of $3,427 million outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3296 million. The top line rose 21.3% year over year on growth across all its businesses and revenues from Quality Carriers, which was acquired last July.

Canadian National (CNI - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2021 earnings (excluding 2 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.36 per share (C$1.71), which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.21. The bottom line increased in double digits year over year on lower costs.

Canadian National’s quarterly revenues of $2,977.4 million (C$3,753 million) topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,917.4 million. The top line increased year over year, driven by higher freight rates and fuel surcharges.

GATX Corporation (GATX - Free Report) reported fourth-quarter 2021 earnings (excluding 11 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.58 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.07. The bottom line surged more than 200% year over year.

GATX’s total revenues of $321 million increased 5.3% year over year, mainly owing to 5.2% higher lease revenues, which came in at $288.4 million. Lease revenues contributed 89.8% to the top line.


 

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