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In a surprise jobs report this morning, Initial Jobless Claims fell precipitously to a total of 187K last week, well below the 210K expected and the slightly upwardly adjusted 215K reported the previous week. This not only represents a post-Covid low, it’s the lowest figure we’ve seen since 1969!
Continuing Claims also fell to more than half-century lows — this for two weeks ago, as Continuing Claims reports a week in arrears — to 1.350 million, a week over week drop of 67K. If there are more definitive accounts of a robust U.S. labor force in our current economy, we certainly haven’t seen them yet.
Now, we should be careful not to place too much importance on one week’s data; it will take subsequent reports to verify this new trend toward full employment — or expose this week’s data as a glitch or a blip on the screen. Next week brings us both private-sector monthly jobs data from ADP (ADP - Free Report) and next Friday’s nonfarm payroll report from the U.S. government. These reports will help us understand to what extent the jobs market has improved.
Durable Goods Orders for February disappointed expectations, with a headline of -2.2% below the -0.5% to -1.0% expected and the previous month’s +1.6%. This is easily the worst print of the past year — in fact, it’s the lowest read since the bottom fell out of the global economy at the start of the pandemic.
However, stripping out volatile month-over-month Transportation orders (think aircraft, mostly), we see that this figure cools to -0.6% — in line with expectations for the month. Non-defense, ex-aircraft orders (a proxy for business spending on common items, closely watched by the Fed and economists) came in at -0.3%, a non-unexpected drop from the +1.3% reported for January.
Another take on the consumer-led economy comes in the form of a Q1 earnings report from Darden Restaurants (DRI - Free Report) this morning. The parent company of Olive Garden, Yard House, Longhorn Steakhouse and others missed expectations on both top and bottom lines: earnings of $1.93 per share was below the $2.09 analysts were looking for, while revenues of $2.45 billion in the quarter missed the Zacks consensus by -2.75%.
The year-over-year comps for Darden are good, but that’s expected to be a common occurrence in Q1 earnings season among public gathering spots, coming as they do opposite pandemic numbers a year ago. Shares of the restaurant chain giant are -13% year to date, and -2.25% in pre-market activity. For more on DRI's earnings, click here.
Markets are up in early trading across the board, but with volatility such as it is these days, it’s tough to place much currency in bullishness at this point. News out of Ukraine — as well as Brussels, which is hosting an emergency NATO meeting, which includes President Biden — may bring sway to market activity, as might public speaking engagements from several voting Fed members throughout the day.
Image: Bigstock
The 60's Are Back (on Jobless Claims)!
Thursday, March 24, 2022
In a surprise jobs report this morning, Initial Jobless Claims fell precipitously to a total of 187K last week, well below the 210K expected and the slightly upwardly adjusted 215K reported the previous week. This not only represents a post-Covid low, it’s the lowest figure we’ve seen since 1969!
Continuing Claims also fell to more than half-century lows — this for two weeks ago, as Continuing Claims reports a week in arrears — to 1.350 million, a week over week drop of 67K. If there are more definitive accounts of a robust U.S. labor force in our current economy, we certainly haven’t seen them yet.
Now, we should be careful not to place too much importance on one week’s data; it will take subsequent reports to verify this new trend toward full employment — or expose this week’s data as a glitch or a blip on the screen. Next week brings us both private-sector monthly jobs data from ADP (ADP - Free Report) and next Friday’s nonfarm payroll report from the U.S. government. These reports will help us understand to what extent the jobs market has improved.
Durable Goods Orders for February disappointed expectations, with a headline of -2.2% below the -0.5% to -1.0% expected and the previous month’s +1.6%. This is easily the worst print of the past year — in fact, it’s the lowest read since the bottom fell out of the global economy at the start of the pandemic.
However, stripping out volatile month-over-month Transportation orders (think aircraft, mostly), we see that this figure cools to -0.6% — in line with expectations for the month. Non-defense, ex-aircraft orders (a proxy for business spending on common items, closely watched by the Fed and economists) came in at -0.3%, a non-unexpected drop from the +1.3% reported for January.
Another take on the consumer-led economy comes in the form of a Q1 earnings report from Darden Restaurants (DRI - Free Report) this morning. The parent company of Olive Garden, Yard House, Longhorn Steakhouse and others missed expectations on both top and bottom lines: earnings of $1.93 per share was below the $2.09 analysts were looking for, while revenues of $2.45 billion in the quarter missed the Zacks consensus by -2.75%.
The year-over-year comps for Darden are good, but that’s expected to be a common occurrence in Q1 earnings season among public gathering spots, coming as they do opposite pandemic numbers a year ago. Shares of the restaurant chain giant are -13% year to date, and -2.25% in pre-market activity. For more on DRI's earnings, click here.
Markets are up in early trading across the board, but with volatility such as it is these days, it’s tough to place much currency in bullishness at this point. News out of Ukraine — as well as Brussels, which is hosting an emergency NATO meeting, which includes President Biden — may bring sway to market activity, as might public speaking engagements from several voting Fed members throughout the day.
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