Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Pre-market futures are up this morning, helping string together the latest bout of positivity in the markets on not-too-much in terms of news headlines: Russia called peace talks with Ukraine “constructive,” but that’s not really a lot to hang one’s hat on. Nevertheless, the Dow is +280 points, the S&P 500 is +38 and the Nasdaq is +175 points. WTI and Brent crude oil prices are down -5% or so, resting right around $100 per barrel.
This morning, we see the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is for the month of January. While more of a backward look than most monthly econ data we receive, it’s widely acknowledged to be the most accurate of home pricing prints. Headline results outperformed expectations: +19.2% for the month from a slight upward revision to +18.9% the previous month.
The 10-city index showed a bounce-back to +17.5% from +17.1% in December, while the 20-city was a little more pronounced: +19.1% from +18.6%. After we saw home prices dipping a tad toward the end of 2021, they look to have regained some momentum in the first month of 2022.
Led once again by the city of Phoenix, which saw home prices +32.6%, followed by Tamps at +30.8% and Miami +28.1%. Clearly, the warm weather is a big factor, although some of the data points suggest movers are taking their big-city lifestyles to smaller towns like Boise, ID. The smallest year-over-year gains — home prices throughout the country were up — came from Washington DC, Minneapolis and Chicago.
Again, the caveat here is that these results are in arrears from other housing data, especially in terms of mortgage rates, which have already risen since the Fed raised interest rates mid-month. Back in January, the average 30-year mortgage was around 3.7%; these days, it’s already around 5%. And if increasing mortgage rates start notably adding to overall home prices, this can be expected to affect demand, which will put pressure on home prices.
After the market opens, we’ll see some new data on Consumer Confidence for March, and Job Openings/Quits for February. While consumers are expected to have dialed down their purchasing enthusiasm — 107.5 expected versus 110.5 last time around — we expect the first data point on employment to have brought down the total number of jobs open to 11.1 million from 11.3 million in January.
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Early 2022 Home Prices Rebound; Jobs & Consumer Data Later
Tuesday, March 29, 2022
Pre-market futures are up this morning, helping string together the latest bout of positivity in the markets on not-too-much in terms of news headlines: Russia called peace talks with Ukraine “constructive,” but that’s not really a lot to hang one’s hat on. Nevertheless, the Dow is +280 points, the S&P 500 is +38 and the Nasdaq is +175 points. WTI and Brent crude oil prices are down -5% or so, resting right around $100 per barrel.
This morning, we see the latest Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is for the month of January. While more of a backward look than most monthly econ data we receive, it’s widely acknowledged to be the most accurate of home pricing prints. Headline results outperformed expectations: +19.2% for the month from a slight upward revision to +18.9% the previous month.
The 10-city index showed a bounce-back to +17.5% from +17.1% in December, while the 20-city was a little more pronounced: +19.1% from +18.6%. After we saw home prices dipping a tad toward the end of 2021, they look to have regained some momentum in the first month of 2022.
Led once again by the city of Phoenix, which saw home prices +32.6%, followed by Tamps at +30.8% and Miami +28.1%. Clearly, the warm weather is a big factor, although some of the data points suggest movers are taking their big-city lifestyles to smaller towns like Boise, ID. The smallest year-over-year gains — home prices throughout the country were up — came from Washington DC, Minneapolis and Chicago.
Again, the caveat here is that these results are in arrears from other housing data, especially in terms of mortgage rates, which have already risen since the Fed raised interest rates mid-month. Back in January, the average 30-year mortgage was around 3.7%; these days, it’s already around 5%. And if increasing mortgage rates start notably adding to overall home prices, this can be expected to affect demand, which will put pressure on home prices.
After the market opens, we’ll see some new data on Consumer Confidence for March, and Job Openings/Quits for February. While consumers are expected to have dialed down their purchasing enthusiasm — 107.5 expected versus 110.5 last time around — we expect the first data point on employment to have brought down the total number of jobs open to 11.1 million from 11.3 million in January.
Questions or comments about this article and/or its author? Click here>>