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National Vision (EYE) Up 23.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for National Vision (EYE - Free Report) . Shares have added about 23.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is National Vision due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
National Vision Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Margins Down
National Vision delivered adjusted earnings per share of 13 cents for the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting a decline of 71.1% from the year-ago 45 cents. However, the figure compared favorably with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 2 cents.
The adjustment excludes the impact of certain non-recurring charges like asset impairment, amortization of acquisition intangibles and stock compensation expenses, among others.
GAAP earnings per share for the quarter was 7 cents compared with the year-ago earnings per share of 42 cents, reflecting an 83.3% decline.
For the full year, adjusted earnings were $1.48, reflecting an increase of 62.6% from the year-ago period. The metric surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.8%.
Revenues in Detail
Revenues in the fourth quarter totaled $477.9 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.4%. The top line declined 3.8% from the year-ago number. The company noted that net revenues were negatively impacted by 1.4% due to the timing of unearned revenues.
In the fourth quarter, comparable store sales growth was 1.7%, whereas adjusted comparable store sales growth was 1.2%. Also, National Vision opened 16 new stores to reach a store count of 1,278 at the end of the quarter. Overall, the store count grew 6.1% year over year.
Full-year revenues were $2.08 billion, reflecting a 21.5% increase from the year-ago period. Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%. The company noted that net revenues were positively impacted by 0.4% due to the timing of unearned revenues.
Margins
Gross profit in the reported quarter was $260.2 million, down 7.2% from the prior-year quarter. Gross margin of 54.5% contracted 197 basis points (bps).
Meanwhile, selling, general and administrative expenses increased 12.5% to $224.8 million. Adjusted operating margin was 7.4%, contracted 878 bps year over year.
Financial Position
National Vision exited 2021 with cash and cash equivalents of $305.8 million compared with $373.9 million at the end of 2020.
Cumulative net cash flow from operating activities at the end of 2021 was $258.9 million compared with $234.9 million a year ago.
2022 Outlook
National Vision initiated its 2022 guidance.
For 2022, net revenues are expected in the range of $2.12-$2.17 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is currently pegged at $2.21 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share is estimated in the band of $1.03-$1.10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is currently pegged at $1.25.
Adjusted comparable store sales growth is expected within (1%)-1.5%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -34.47% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, National Vision has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise National Vision has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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National Vision (EYE) Up 23.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for National Vision (EYE - Free Report) . Shares have added about 23.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is National Vision due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
National Vision Q4 Earnings Top Estimates, Margins Down
National Vision delivered adjusted earnings per share of 13 cents for the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting a decline of 71.1% from the year-ago 45 cents. However, the figure compared favorably with the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 2 cents.
The adjustment excludes the impact of certain non-recurring charges like asset impairment, amortization of acquisition intangibles and stock compensation expenses, among others.
GAAP earnings per share for the quarter was 7 cents compared with the year-ago earnings per share of 42 cents, reflecting an 83.3% decline.
For the full year, adjusted earnings were $1.48, reflecting an increase of 62.6% from the year-ago period. The metric surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.8%.
Revenues in Detail
Revenues in the fourth quarter totaled $477.9 million, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.4%. The top line declined 3.8% from the year-ago number. The company noted that net revenues were negatively impacted by 1.4% due to the timing of unearned revenues.
In the fourth quarter, comparable store sales growth was 1.7%, whereas adjusted comparable store sales growth was 1.2%. Also, National Vision opened 16 new stores to reach a store count of 1,278 at the end of the quarter. Overall, the store count grew 6.1% year over year.
Full-year revenues were $2.08 billion, reflecting a 21.5% increase from the year-ago period. Revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.5%. The company noted that net revenues were positively impacted by 0.4% due to the timing of unearned revenues.
Margins
Gross profit in the reported quarter was $260.2 million, down 7.2% from the prior-year quarter. Gross margin of 54.5% contracted 197 basis points (bps).
Meanwhile, selling, general and administrative expenses increased 12.5% to $224.8 million. Adjusted operating margin was 7.4%, contracted 878 bps year over year.
Financial Position
National Vision exited 2021 with cash and cash equivalents of $305.8 million compared with $373.9 million at the end of 2020.
Cumulative net cash flow from operating activities at the end of 2021 was $258.9 million compared with $234.9 million a year ago.
2022 Outlook
National Vision initiated its 2022 guidance.
For 2022, net revenues are expected in the range of $2.12-$2.17 billion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is currently pegged at $2.21 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share is estimated in the band of $1.03-$1.10. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is currently pegged at $1.25.
Adjusted comparable store sales growth is expected within (1%)-1.5%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates review.
The consensus estimate has shifted -34.47% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
At this time, National Vision has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise National Vision has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.