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4 Sector ETFs to Win From a +8.5% Inflation

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The CPI jumped again at its fastest annual pace in nearly 40 years in March. The annual inflation rate in the United States jumped to 8.5% in March 2022, the highest since December 1981 from 7.9% in February and above market forecasts of 8.4%. Rising commodities prices, higher demand and supply chain disruptions, and a low base effect from last year continued to raise prices.

Energy prices surged 32%, namely gasoline (48%) and fuel oil (70.1%) as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed crude oil prices higher. Also, food prices jumped 8.8%, the most since May 1981. Inflation sped up for shelter (5% vs 4.7% in February) and new vehicles (12.5% vs 12.4%), per tradingeconomics.

Against this backdrop, we suggest a few sector ETFs that can be worth investing at the time of rising inflation. Below we highlight those.

Sectors to Gain

Energy

The energy sector tends to perform well in an inflationary environment. Revenues of energy stocks are dependent on energy prices, a key factor of inflation indices. Such firms surpassed inflation 71% of the time within a time span of 1973-2020 and delivered an annual real return of 9.0% per year on average.

The operating backdrop of the sector too is bullish. Oil prices have been rising since the beginning of 2022. The upside in crude oil prices was triggered by factors like easing Omicron variant concerns, supply shortages, and geopolitical tensions in energy-rich Eastern Europe and the Middle East. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP - Free Report) could be good play here.

Food & Grocery Stocks

Food-at-home inflation is rising faster than food-away-from home inflation, indicating the hot groceries market. Food companies normally pass on cost increases of raw materials to consumers to maintain the profit margin. With consumer staples or food companies being a non-cyclical sector, the sheer necessities of staples can’t even deter consumers from buying those goods. Hence, the sector should hold up well in an inflationary environment.

Food-at-home inflation was 1.5% in March over 1.4% in February while food-away-from-home inflation was 0.3% in March over 0.4% in February. Invesco Dynamic Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ - Free Report) is a good pick here.

Real Estate

The ETFs on the U.S. real estate sector have been surging lately on still-low rates. Bets that the new COVID-19 variant Omicron may cause milder illness than previously feared eased fears of further lockdowns. Rising home prices also boosted the demand for real estate. Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR - Free Report) should thus win.

Auto

The price inflation of new cars has been palpable. The index for new vehicles increased 0.2% in March after rising 0.3% the previous month. First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF (CARZ - Free Report) can thus be played on the uptick in car price inflation.

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