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UBS Group (UBS) Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: What to Expect?

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UBS Group AG’s (UBS - Free Report) first-quarter 2022 results are scheduled to release on Apr 26, before market open. The company’s earnings and revenues are expected to grow from the year-ago reported figure.

In fourth-quarter 2021 UBS reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.3 billion, down 18% from the prior-year quarter. However, fourth-quarter 2021 earnings per share of 38 cents compared unfavorably with 44 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

Shares of UBS Group on the NYSE outperformed the industry in the first quarter.

 

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Here are other factors that are expected to have impacted UBS’s quarterly performance:

Amid geopolitical tensions, the Swiss bank disclosed that of the $20.9-billion total emerging market exposure (as of Dec 31, 2021), it had $634-million exposure to Russia.Following Russia's attack on Ukraine, the numerous financial and economic sanctions imposed by the United States, the U.K., Switzerland and the European Union on Russia are anticipated to have dented the value of Russian assets held by the bank.

The negative impacts of the ongoing geopolitical tensions have further deteriorated the equity market conditions. This is expected to have an additional blow to UBS Group’s financials in the to-be-reported quarter.

Notably, lower client activities due to clients sidelining investments amid the uncertain backdrop are expected to have reduced recurring fees for UBS. On similar lines, the company is expected to have seen lower performance fees in the asset management and wealth management franchises in the first quarter. Given that global wealth management accounts for the lion's share of the bank's profits, this is anticipated to have affected the first-quarter performance.

Nonetheless, given its global scale and market share, net new fee-generating assets are likely to have been robust, at least in the first two months of the quarter. This is anticipated to have provided some respite.

Coming to investment banking operations, deal-making considerably reduced in first-quarter 2022. Also, a decline in investment banking activity due to subdued capital markets, and a decline in equity and debt issuance deal volume were seen. High market volatility, triggered by the Ukraine crisis, and uncertainty regarding an economic slowdown tied to inflation created headwinds in the March-end quarter. Hence, low equity and bond volumes are anticipated to have hindered the company’s investment banking operations.

The company’s net interest income is expected to have been under pressure in the quarter due to unfavorable interest rates in Switzerland amid tepid growth in the European economy. 

UBS Group has been making efforts to become more digital and data-driven to provide clients with digital-first services. The company has also been migrating toward a cloud-based application system, accelerating digitalization and facilitating connection with the financial industry ecosystem. Such moves, along with inflation-led personnel compensation increases, are likely to have inflated the company’s expense base in the first quarter.

Key Developments During the Quarter

UBS Group inked a deal to acquire Wealthfront, a pioneering automated wealth management provider for the next-generation investors, in a $1.4-billion transaction. The all-cash deal is currently expected to close in the second half of 2022 and will accelerate the bank’s long-term goal to deliver a scalable, digital-led wealth management solution in the US markets.

It also announced a share repurchase program for 2022, commencing on Mar 31, of up to $6 billion of common stock, valid for two years.

What Does the Zacks Model Say?

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for UBS Group this time around. This is because the company does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: UBS Group has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

UBS’ activities in the to-be-reported quarter were adequate to raise analysts’ optimism. As a result, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings of 52 cents has moved 6.1% upward in the past month. Also, the figure indicates a 6.1% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $8.97 billion, suggesting growth of 21.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Discover Financial Services (DFS - Free Report) and Independent Bank Corporation (IBCP - Free Report) are a couple of stocks that you might want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases, per our model.

Discover Financialis scheduled to release first-quarter results on Apr 27. DFS currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +1.14%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DSF’s first-quarter earnings has moved 1.1% upward over the past 30 days.

Independent Bank is scheduled to release first-quarter results on Apr 26. IBCP currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and an Earnings ESP of +10%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for IBCP’s first-quarter earnings has been unchanged over the past 30 days.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.


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