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What's in the Cards for Hartford Financial (HIG) Q1 Earnings?

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The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG - Free Report) will release first-quarter 2022 financial results on Apr 28, after the closing bell.

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the first-quarter earnings announcement.

Q4 Earnings & Revenue Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hartford Financial’s first-quarter earnings of $1.56 per share implies a 178.6% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate for sales of $3.66 billion suggests an 8.9% increase from the year-ago period’s reported figure.

Factors at Play for Q1 Results

Hartford Financial’s revenues are likely to have gained from higher contribution by its Commercial Lines, Hartford Funds and Corporate segments. HIG is likely to have continued witnessing strong sales in the to-be-reported quarter.
HIG is likely to have benefited from better written premiums in the Commercial Lines segment. Hartford Funds and Group Benefits also likely contributed to this upside.

However, the Personal Lines segment is likely to have recorded lower earned premiums, which in turn, might have dented its revenue base.
Hartford Financial is likely to have continued witnessing pressure on the portfolio yield in the first quarter.


The segment might have suffered a soft underlying underwriting gain and a less favorable PYD in the quarter under review.

HIG is also expected to have witnessed a significant decline in new business in the middle and large commercial markets, which might have affected its overall performance.

Margins are likely to have been depressed by steep expenses despite its cost-curbing measures.

Earnings Surprise History

HIG boasts an encouraging earnings surprise record. The bottom line beat estimates in three of the last four quarters (missing the mark in one), the average surprise being 34.58%. This is depicted in the chart below:

What the Quantitative Model States

Our proven model doesn’t predict an earnings beat for Hartford Financial this season. The combination of a positive  Earnings ESP  and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our  Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Hartford Financial has an Earnings ESP of -2.68%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.52, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56.  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Zacks Rank: Hartford Financial currently carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings

Hartford Financial reported fourth-quarter 2021 adjusted operating earnings of $2.02 per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 32.9%. Moreover, the bottom line rose 14.8% year over year.

HIG’s results benefited from an uptick in net investment income, higher assets under management, higher P&C PYD, lower P&C current accident year (CAY) catastrophe (CAT) losses, decrease in P&C COVID-19 incurred losses, and an improved Commercial Lines underlying loss and loss adjustment expense ratio, etc.

Hartford Financial also witnessed solid contributions from its Commercial Lines, P&C Other Ops, Group Benefits and Hartford Funds segments. However, the results were partially offset by increased underwriting expenses due to compensation expenses, AARP direct marketing and technology costs, higher contingent and supplemental commissions, and a higher underlying Personal Lines loss and loss adjustment expense ratio.

Total operating revenues increased 7.4% year over year to $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter. The top line outpaced the consensus mark by 2.1%. Net investment income climbed 3.1% year over year to $573 million in the quarter under review, courtesy of an increased income, stemming from limited partnerships and alternative investments (LPs), partly offset by decreased reinvestment rates.

Stocks to Consider

Some stocks worth considering from the finance sector with the perfect mix of elements to surpass estimates in the upcoming releases are as follows:

Aflac Incorporated (AFL - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.76% and Zacks Rank of 3. AFL managed to deliver a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.20%, on average. AFL will report Q1 results on Apr 27.

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.76% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. AJG will report first-quarter earnings on Apr 28. AJG’s earnings managed to surpass estimates in all its trailing four quarters, the average being 8.76%.

The Allstate Corporation (ALL - Free Report) will report first-quarter 2022 earnings results on May 4. ALL has an Earnings ESP of +4.77% and a Zacks Rank #3, currently. ALL’s bottom line managed to beat estimates in three of its trailing four quarters (missing the mark in one), the average surprise being 7.72%.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
 

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