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Why Is Steven Madden (SHOO) Down 14.1% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Steven Madden (SHOO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 14.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Steven Madden due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Steven Madden Q1 Revenues & Earnings Beat Estimates

Steven Madden reported sturdy results for first-quarter 2022, wherein both the top and the bottom line improved year over year and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly results were backed by gains from its strategic efforts.

Q1 Highlights

Steven Madden delivered adjusted earnings of 92 cents a share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 48 cents. Also, the bottom line grew significantly from adjusted earnings of 33 cents per share recorded in the year-earlier quarter. Higher sales and margins drove the bottom-line performance.

Total revenues jumped 55% year over year to $559.7 million. This takes into account net sales of $557.3 million, which increased 55.3% year over year, as well as commission and licensing fee income of $2.4 million that dropped 14.3% from the last-year level. The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $463 million.

E-commerce revenues rose 57.5% year over year, reflecting solid performances in the Steve Madden, Dolce Vita and Betsey Johnson digital businesses. Brick-and-mortar revenues increased 64.1% year over year or 52% on a comp-store basis. The apparel business witnessed robust strength and grew triple digits from last-year levels.

Gross profit surged 63.8% year over year to $227.9 million while consolidated gross margin expanded 220 basis points (bps) to 40.7%. Wholesale gross margin increased 290 bps to 35.2% from the year-ago period’s level while direct-to-consumer gross margin contracted 120 bps to 62.3%.
 
Steven Madden reported an adjusted operating income of $94.4 million, up from $35.6 million registered in the same quarter a year ago. Adjusted operating margin expanded 700 bps to 16.9%.

Segmental Performances

Revenues for the Wholesale business increased 54.1% year over year to $449 million. Wholesale footwear revenues climbed 59.9% year over year while wholesale accessories and apparel revenues were up 37.1%.

Direct-to-consumer revenues surged 60.5% year over year to $108.3 million. SHOO ended the first quarter with 213 brick-and-mortar retail outlets, six e-commerce websites and 19 company-operated concessions across the international markets.

Other Financial Aspects

Steven Madden ended the reported quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments of $180.2 million and shareholders’ equity of $835.2 million, excluding a non-controlling interest of $8.2 million. As of Mar 31, 2022, SHOO had inventories of $233.4 million, up 118.9% year over year.

CapEx came in at $3.6 million during the first quarter of 2022. Steven Madden used net cash from operating activities of $19.4 million at the end of the first quarter.

2022 View

Following the sturdy quarterly results, management raised its outlook for 2022. Management now projects revenues to rise 13-16% versus 2021, up from the prior growth range of 10-13%. Steven Madden envisions earnings per share in the bracket of $2.87-$2.97 while adjusted earnings are guided in the range of $2.90-$3.00. Earlier, management had predicted earnings per share of $2.66-$2.76 while adjusted earnings were projected in the band of $2.73-$2.83.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -15.18% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Steven Madden has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Steven Madden has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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