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Why Is Old Dominion (ODFL) Down 10.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 10.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Old Dominion due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Earnings Beat at Old Dominion in Q1

Old Dominion Freight Line’s earnings per share of $2.60 outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.37. The bottom line surged 52.9% year over year. Revenues of $1497.3 million also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,454.1 million and increased 32.9% year over year. The uptick was backed by a 12% increase in LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) tons per day and a 17.4% rise in LTL revenue per hundredweight.

Other Details

In the quarter under review, LTL weight per shipment fell 1.1%, while LTL revenue per shipment rose 16.1%. LTL shipments and LTL shipments per day were up 15% and 13.2% year over year, respectively. The LTL services unit logged a total of $1,475.8 million, up 33% year over year. Revenues from other services rallied 27.3% to $21.5 million.

Total operating expenses moved up 27.4% to $1,091.6 million, mainly due to a 24.6% rise in costs pertaining to salaries, wages & benefits, a 54% increase in operating supplies and expenses as well as a 51.3% surge in purchased transportation costs. Operating ratio improved 320 basis points to 72.9%. Lower the value of this metric, the better.

Old Dominion exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalents worth $262.12 million compared with $462.6 million at the end of 2021. Capital expenditures incurred in the reported quarter were $93.7 million. Old Dominion expects a capex of $825 million for 2022. Of the total, $300 million is anticipated to be invested in real estate and service-center expansion. ODFL expects to spend $485 million and $40 million on tractors/trailers and information technology and other assets, respectively.

During the first quarter, Old Dominion paid out dividends worth $34.2 million to its shareholders. ODFL used $438.4 million of cash for its share repurchase program, including a $400-million accelerated share buyback program that will expire by August 2022.


 

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 5.41% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Old Dominion has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Old Dominion has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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