It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CNO Financial (CNO Quick QuoteCNO - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 4.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CNO due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

CNO Financial Q1 Earnings & Revenue Miss Estimates

CNO Financial reported first-quarter 2022 adjusted earnings per share of 42 cents, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 26.3%. The bottom line declined 23.6% year over year.

Total revenues of $842.9 million slumped 16.2% year over year in the first quarter. The top line missed the consensus mark by 8%.

Total insurance policy income decreased 1% year over year to $625 million in the quarter under review.

Net investment income of $208.2 million plunged 38% year over year.

Annuity collected premiums improved 13% year over year to $368.6 million in the first quarter.

New annualized premiums for health and life products amounted to $90.6 million, up 2% year over year.

Total benefits and expenses of $693.6 million decreased 15% year over year, thanks to lower insurance policy benefits, interest expenses, and other operating costs and expenses.

Financial Update (as of Mar 31, 2022)

CNO Financial exited the first quarter with unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $546 million, which declined 17.6% year over year.

Total assets of $35.5 billion increased 2.3% year over year.

Total shareholders’ equity slashed 24.1% year over year to $3.7 billion.

Book value per share was $31.48, down 14% year over year.

Adjusted operating return on equity of 11.2% deteriorated 110 basis points (bps) year over year during the first quarter.

Debt-to-capital ratio deteriorated 460 bps year over year to 23.6%.

Share Repurchase and Dividend Update

In the quarter under review, CNO Financial rewarded $116.1 million to shareholders to the tune of share buybacks worth $100 million and dividends of $16.1 million.

2022 Outlook

Management anticipates consistent positive momentum in sales figure this year.

Investment income, allocated to products, is expected to stay relatively flat. Meanwhile, investment income, not allocated to products, is likely to remain lower than the 2021 figure.

Fee income is predicted to witness an uptrend in 2022, with the metric remaining seasonally softer in the second and third quarters of 2022 (on a sequential basis) and gradually picking up in the fourth quarter.

Expenses (excluding significant items) are estimated to be decently higher than the 2021 figure.

Free cash flow is expected to be lower than the 2021 level.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -10.53% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, CNO has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise CNO has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.