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Five Below (FIVE) Lined Up for Q1 Earnings: Factors to Note

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Five Below, Inc. (FIVE - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 results on Jun 8, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $653.4 million, suggesting an improvement of 9.3% from the prior-year reported figure.

Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has decreased by a penny to 58 cents over the past seven days. The figure indicates a decline of 34.1% from the prior-year quarter.

This extreme-value retailer for tweens, teens and beyond has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 21.4%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 0.4%.

Factors to Note

Five Below’s first-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from its focus on providing trend-right products, strengthening digital capabilities and growing its brick-and-mortar footprint. We believe increased penetration of Five Beyond and e-commerce business, new customer acquisition, sales lifts from remodels and conversions, and selective merchandise price increases might have contributed to the top line.

On its last earnings call, management guided first-quarter net sales in the range of $644 million to $658 million, up from $597.8 million reported in the year-ago period. However, Five Below did caution about tough year-over-year comparison due to lapping record government stimulus year ago and the uncertainty surrounding soaring inflation. As a result, the company had projected first-quarter comparable sales to be flat to down 2%.

The company is navigating through a tight supply chain environment across the retail landscape, resulting in higher inbound freight costs. These are likely to have put pressure on margins and, in turn, the bottom line. Five Below had guided 400 basis points of contraction in operating margin for the first quarter. It had projected earnings between 54 cents and 62 a share for the quarter under discussion, which is down from 88 cents reported in the year-ago period.

Five Below, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Five Below, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Five Below, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Five Below, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Five Below this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Five Below has an Earnings ESP of -5.82% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Kroger (KR - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.65% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to register bottom-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2022 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $1.27 suggests growth of 6.7% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

Kroger’s top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $43.57 billion, indicating an increase of 5.5% from the year-ago quarter. KR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.1%, on average.

Fastenal Company (FAST - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.82% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter fiscal 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 50 cents suggests an increase of 19.1% from the year-ago reported number.

Fastenal Company’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.78 billion, which indicates an improvement of 18.3% from the prior-year quarter. FAST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5%, on average.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.26% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter 2022 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of $9.06 suggests an increase of 21.5% from the year-ago reported number.

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s top line is expected to increase year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.24 billion, which indicates growth of 18.6% from the prior-year quarter. CMG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.3%, on average.

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