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Is a Beat in Store for Gilead (GILD) in This Earnings Season?
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Biotech major Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2022 results on Aug 2, after market close.
The company has a good track record, with earnings beating estimates in three of the last four quarters and missing in one, the average beat being 6.30%. In the last reported quarter, the company beat expectations by 19.77%.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Gilead this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Gilead is +2.71%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.51 and the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.56.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Factors at Play
Gilead did not provide any guidance for the second quarter.
HIV franchise sales increased 2% in the previous quarter driven by higher demand for flagship HIV therapy Biktarvy and favorable pricing dynamics, which more than offset the decline in sales due to the loss of exclusivity of Truvada and Atripla. Biktarvy sales increased 18% year over year in the first quarter due to higher demand, and the trend is likely to have continued in the second quarter. Descovy revenues too increased 4% year over year, driven by higher demand and favorable pricing. The momentum is likely to have continued in the second quarter.
On the first quarter earnings call, management stated that the company saw signs of recovery in the HIV treatment market despite screening and diagnosis rates still below pre-pandemic levels and the Omicron surge in the first quarter impacting the market growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $2.3 billion and $444 million, respectively.
Truvada sales decreased 72% year over year in the first quarter, and the decline is likely to have accelerated in the second quarter.
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) product sales have been declining for quite some time now, and the first quarter saw a 22% fall due to lower net price and fewer patient starts. The trend has likely continued in the second quarter.
Veklury (remdesivir) sales, an antiviral treatment for COVID-19, was a significant contributor in the first quarter as sales jumped 5% to $1.5 billion. However, the second quarter is likely to have seen a significant sequential decline as the need for medications fell with a rise in general immunity to this virus. Gilead expects total Veklury sales of approximately $2.0 billion for 2022.
Cell Therapy product sales, which include Yescarta (axicabtagene ciloleucel) and Tecartus (brexucabtagene autoleucel), were up 43 % in the previous quarter. Sales might have experienced a sequential increase, driven by label expansions of Yescarta and Tecartus. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Yescarta sales stands at $229 million.
Trodelvy (for breast cancer) sales surged 103% in the first quarter, reflecting continued uptake in the second-line setting for the treatment of metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in the United States and Europe as well as metastatic urothelial cancer (UC) in the United States. The drug was added following the acquisition of Immunomedics by Gilead in 2020. Sales is likely to have registered a sequential increase as demand is normalizing.
Operating expenses are likely to have increased due to higher investments in the oncology program.
Other Pipeline & Regulatory Updates
Apart from the regular top and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on key pipeline updates.
Gilead has resubmitted its new drug application (NDA) to the FDA for experimental candidate lenacapavir. The company is seeking approval of lenacapavir, an investigational, long-acting HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, for treating heavily treatment-experienced (HTE) people with multi-drug-resistant (MDR) HIV-1 infection.
The FDA also lifted the clinical hold placed on the company’s Investigational New Drug Application (IND) to evaluate injectable lenacapavir for HIV treatment and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).
Share Price Performance
Gilead’s stock has lost 16.2% in the year so far compared with the industry's decline of 18.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other drug/biotech stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
Ionis has a mixed track record, having topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and missing in the remaining two. It pulled off a four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.35%, on average.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.38% and a Zacks Rank #3. AstraZeneca has a good record, having topped earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missing in one. AZN pulled off a four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.32%, on average.
Repligen (RGEN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank #3. Repligen topped earnings estimates in all of the last four quarters. RGEN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 30.84%, on average.
Image: Shutterstock
Is a Beat in Store for Gilead (GILD) in This Earnings Season?
Biotech major Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is set to report second-quarter 2022 results on Aug 2, after market close.
The company has a good track record, with earnings beating estimates in three of the last four quarters and missing in one, the average beat being 6.30%. In the last reported quarter, the company beat expectations by 19.77%.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Gilead Sciences, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Gilead Sciences, Inc. Quote
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Gilead this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Gilead is +2.71%, as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.51 and the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at $1.56.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Factors at Play
Gilead did not provide any guidance for the second quarter.
HIV franchise sales increased 2% in the previous quarter driven by higher demand for flagship HIV therapy Biktarvy and favorable pricing dynamics, which more than offset the decline in sales due to the loss of exclusivity of Truvada and Atripla. Biktarvy sales increased 18% year over year in the first quarter due to higher demand, and the trend is likely to have continued in the second quarter. Descovy revenues too increased 4% year over year, driven by higher demand and favorable pricing. The momentum is likely to have continued in the second quarter.
On the first quarter earnings call, management stated that the company saw signs of recovery in the HIV treatment market despite screening and diagnosis rates still below pre-pandemic levels and the Omicron surge in the first quarter impacting the market growth.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for sales of Biktarvy and Descovy is pegged at $2.3 billion and $444 million, respectively.
Truvada sales decreased 72% year over year in the first quarter, and the decline is likely to have accelerated in the second quarter.
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) product sales have been declining for quite some time now, and the first quarter saw a 22% fall due to lower net price and fewer patient starts. The trend has likely continued in the second quarter.
Veklury (remdesivir) sales, an antiviral treatment for COVID-19, was a significant contributor in the first quarter as sales jumped 5% to $1.5 billion. However, the second quarter is likely to have seen a significant sequential decline as the need for medications fell with a rise in general immunity to this virus. Gilead expects total Veklury sales of approximately $2.0 billion for 2022.
Cell Therapy product sales, which include Yescarta (axicabtagene ciloleucel) and Tecartus (brexucabtagene autoleucel), were up 43 % in the previous quarter. Sales might have experienced a sequential increase, driven by label expansions of Yescarta and Tecartus. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Yescarta sales stands at $229 million.
Trodelvy (for breast cancer) sales surged 103% in the first quarter, reflecting continued uptake in the second-line setting for the treatment of metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) in the United States and Europe as well as metastatic urothelial cancer (UC) in the United States. The drug was added following the acquisition of Immunomedics by Gilead in 2020. Sales is likely to have registered a sequential increase as demand is normalizing.
Operating expenses are likely to have increased due to higher investments in the oncology program.
Other Pipeline & Regulatory Updates
Apart from the regular top and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on key pipeline updates.
Gilead has resubmitted its new drug application (NDA) to the FDA for experimental candidate lenacapavir. The company is seeking approval of lenacapavir, an investigational, long-acting HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, for treating heavily treatment-experienced (HTE) people with multi-drug-resistant (MDR) HIV-1 infection.
The FDA also lifted the clinical hold placed on the company’s Investigational New Drug Application (IND) to evaluate injectable lenacapavir for HIV treatment and HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP).
Share Price Performance
Gilead’s stock has lost 16.2% in the year so far compared with the industry's decline of 18.6%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some other drug/biotech stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +27.61% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Ionis has a mixed track record, having topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and missing in the remaining two. It pulled off a four-quarter earnings surprise of 24.35%, on average.
AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.38% and a Zacks Rank #3. AstraZeneca has a good record, having topped earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missing in one. AZN pulled off a four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.32%, on average.
Repligen (RGEN - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +4.79% and a Zacks Rank #3. Repligen topped earnings estimates in all of the last four quarters. RGEN delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 30.84%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.