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Incyte (INCY) Down 2.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Incyte (INCY - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 2.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Incyte due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Incyte's Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates in Q2

Incyte’s earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the second quarter of 2022. The company’s lead drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib) continues to witness growth in patient demand during the same time.

The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.01 per share in the second quarter of 2022, comprehensively beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. It had reported earnings of 80 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Incyte’s total revenues came in at $911.4 million in the second quarter of 2022, increasing 29.1% year over year. Sales surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $821 million as well.

Quarter in Detail

Total product and royalty revenues came in at $781.4 million, up 12.3% from the year-ago quarter. Jakafi’s (a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor approved for polycythemiavera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease [GVHD]) revenues came in at $597.7 million. The figure increased 13% from the year-ago quarter and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $590 million.

Net product revenues of Iclusig amounted to $26.2 million, down 7% from the year-ago quarter.

Pemazyre generated $18.9 million in sales during the second quarter, reflecting an increase of 6% year over year.

Jakavi’s (name outside the United States) royalty revenues from Novartis for commercialization in ex-U.S. markets grew 2% to $83.7 million.

Jakafi is marketed by Incyte in the United States and by Novartis as Jakavi outside the country.

Incyte also receives royalties from sales of Tabrecta (capmatinib) for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer. Its partner, Novartis, has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights to Tabrecta.

Tabrecta’s product royalty revenues came in at $3.6 million, up 45% year over year.

Olumiant’s product royalty revenues from Eli Lilly came in at $30.2 million, down 16% year over year.

R&D expenses were $319.1 million, up 1% from the year-ago quarter, owing to higher investments in late-stage pipeline development. SG&A expenses amounted to $235.6 million, up 54% from the prior-year quarter due to expenses related to the establishment of its dermatology commercial organization and activities to support the potential launch of Opzelura for the treatment of atopic dermatitis (“AD”) and pre-launch activities for the vitiligo indication.

Pipeline and Regulatory Updates

In July 2022, the FDA approved ruxolitinib cream for another indication. The regulatory body approved Opzelura cream 1.5% for the topical treatment of nonsegmental vitiligo in adult and pediatric patients aged 12 years and older. Opzelura is also under review in Europe for the given indication. Ruxolitinib cream is marketed under the brand name, Opzelura.

In June 2022, the FDA approved Olumiant, a once-daily pill, as a first-in-disease systemic treatment for adults with severe alopecia areata (AA), available as 4-mg, 2-mg and 1-mg tablets.

Olumiant was also approved in Europe for the treatment of adults with severe AA in June.

The drug is a once-daily, oral JAK inhibitor discovered by Incyte and licensed to Lilly. It is also approved for the treatment of adults with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis.

In May 2022, the European Commission approved Jakavi for the treatment of patients with acute or chronic GVHD, who have an inadequate response to corticosteroids or other systemic therapies.

2022 Guidance

Incyte raised the bottom end of full-year Jakafi net product revenue guidance. The company now expects Jakafi revenues to be in the range of $2.36-$2.40 billion compared with the previous expectation of $2.33-$2.40 billion for 2022.

Other Hematology/Oncology net product revenues are projected in the range of $210-$240 million, unchanged from the previous expectation.


 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -9.7% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Incyte has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Incyte has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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