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Carnival (CCL) Stock Declines 54% in a year: Is the Worst Over?

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Shares of Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL - Free Report) have plunged 53.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 36.9%. However, the stock has displayed some resilience, increasing 11.4% in the past three months. Improved booking trends and resumption of operations are likely to benefit the company in the upcoming periods. Let’s delve deeper.

Growth Drivers

The company is benefiting from the resumption of operations and has returned to full operation. It stated that more than 90% of its capacity is back in guest cruise operations for third-quarter 2022. CCL expects to generate higher EBITDA in 2023 compared with 2019 on account of additional capacity and improved cost structure. It anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be positive for the third quarter of 2022.

The improvement in bookings is aiding the company. During the fiscal second quarter, the company raised its booking position for the second half of 2022. Cumulative advance bookings for the second half of 2022 are below the historical range. Carnival stated that cumulative advanced bookings for the first half of 2023 are at the higher end of historical ranges and increased prices compared with the 2019 levels. Meanwhile, total customer deposits as of May 31 were $5.1 billion compared with $3.7 billion as of Feb 28, 2022. As of Jun 24, 2022, 91% of the company's capacity had resumed guest cruise operations.

Zacks Investment Research
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Carnival focuses on fleet expansion to drive growth. In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, the company announced the addition of Costa Toscana, AIDAcosma and Discovery Princess to its fleet of efficient ships. It stated that the addition of ships, coupled with the removal of less efficient ships, is likely to pave the path for a 4% reduction in ship level unit cost in the upcoming periods, thereby enhancing the top and bottom lines.

This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company is the largest and historically the most profitable cruise operator in the world. The company’s cruise brands are diversified across diverse geographies, including Asia and Europe, and strategically positioned at various price points within the larger North American cruise market. This enables the company to cater to passengers in various geographic regions and within the contemporary, premium and luxury cruise segments. With the strength and diversity of its brands and itineraries, the company boasts a broader passenger base among potential and repeat cruise vacationers.

Key Picks

Some better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector are Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC - Free Report) , Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH - Free Report) and Hyatt Hotels Corporation (H - Free Report) .

Marriott Vacations currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). VAC has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.9%, on average. The stock has declined 5.9% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VAC’s current financial year sales and EPS indicates an increase of 19.7% and 131.4%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.

Choice Hotels carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), at present. CHH has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.2%, on average. The stock has decreased 14.1% in the past six months.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHH’s current financial year sales and EPS indicates growth of 25.3% and 21.7%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.

Hyatt Hotels currently carries a Zacks Rank #2. H has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.2%, on average. The stock has gained 25.3% in the past year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for H’s current financial year sales and EPS indicates growth of 21.9% and 21.7%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s reported levels.

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