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Why is an Earnings Beat Less Likely for BNY Mellon (BK) in Q3?
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The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 17, before market open. Its revenues and earnings in the to-be-reported quarter are expected to have witnessed a rise on a year-over-year basis.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by a rise in net interest revenues and fee revenues. However, asset balances witnessed a decline and higher expenses hurt results to some extent.
BNY Mellon has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three and met in one of the trailing four quarters, with a surprise of 1.7%, on average.
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.10, which has been unchanged over the past seven days. The estimate indicates a rise of 5.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for earnings is $1.09.
The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $4.18 billion, implying a 3.7% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $4.19 billion.
Key Factors & Estimates for Q3
Fee Revenues: Supported by overall asset inflows in the third quarter, BNY Mellon is expected to have recorded an improvement in the total assets under management (AUM) balance. Thus, the related fee is likely to have increased.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total investment services fee (comprising more than 50% of the company’s total revenues) is pegged at $2.16 billion, which indicates a rise of 3.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the same is $2.10 billion, indicating a marginal year-over-year rise.
The consensus mark for financing-related fees is pegged at $46.78 million, which suggests a 2.5% year-over-year decline. Our estimate for financing-related fees is $46.3 million, indicating a decline of 3.5%.
The consensus estimate for distribution and servicing fees is pegged at $35.30 million, indicating 26.1% growth from the previous-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $30.2 million, suggesting year-over-year growth of 7.9%.
The consensus estimate for foreign exchange revenues is pegged at $207 million, suggesting a rise of 11.9% from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate is $204.7 million, indicating a rise of 10.7%. The consensus mark for investment and other income of $100 million suggests a year-over-year decline of 21.3%. Our estimate for the same is $99.7 million, indicating a decline of 22.7%.
The consensus estimate for total fees and other revenues is pegged at $3.37 billion, suggesting a marginal decline from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the same is also $3.37 billion, indicating a marginal year-over-year decline.
Net Interest Revenues: The overall lending scenario continued to improve in the third quarter. In addition to loan growth, there was a rise in interest rates in the quarter. The Federal Reserve continued with its hawkish monetary policy stance, raising interest rates by another 150 basis points in the quarter. The policy rate reached 3.0-3.25%, the highest level since 2008.
Thus, despite the inversion of the yield curve, BNY Mellon’s interest income is expected to have been positively impacted in the quarter, supported by loan growth and higher rates. The consensus mark for NIR for the third quarter is pegged at $841 million, indicating 31.2% year-over-year growth. Our estimate for NIR is $815.1 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 27.2%.
Expenses: Because of higher litigation and restructuring charges, BNY Mellon’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Nevertheless, overall costs are expected to have been manageable in the quarter under review, given the elimination of unnecessary management layers.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
According to our quantitative model, the chances of BNY Mellon beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BNY Mellon is -0.15%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
A couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases, per our model, are Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) and Associated Banc-Corp (ASB - Free Report) .
The Earnings ESP for Morgan Stanley is +0.59% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 14.
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Why is an Earnings Beat Less Likely for BNY Mellon (BK) in Q3?
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 17, before market open. Its revenues and earnings in the to-be-reported quarter are expected to have witnessed a rise on a year-over-year basis.
In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were aided by a rise in net interest revenues and fee revenues. However, asset balances witnessed a decline and higher expenses hurt results to some extent.
BNY Mellon has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three and met in one of the trailing four quarters, with a surprise of 1.7%, on average.
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at $1.10, which has been unchanged over the past seven days. The estimate indicates a rise of 5.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for earnings is $1.09.
The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $4.18 billion, implying a 3.7% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $4.19 billion.
Key Factors & Estimates for Q3
Fee Revenues: Supported by overall asset inflows in the third quarter, BNY Mellon is expected to have recorded an improvement in the total assets under management (AUM) balance. Thus, the related fee is likely to have increased.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total investment services fee (comprising more than 50% of the company’s total revenues) is pegged at $2.16 billion, which indicates a rise of 3.3% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Our estimate for the same is $2.10 billion, indicating a marginal year-over-year rise.
The consensus mark for financing-related fees is pegged at $46.78 million, which suggests a 2.5% year-over-year decline. Our estimate for financing-related fees is $46.3 million, indicating a decline of 3.5%.
The consensus estimate for distribution and servicing fees is pegged at $35.30 million, indicating 26.1% growth from the previous-year quarter’s reported figure. Our estimate for the same is $30.2 million, suggesting year-over-year growth of 7.9%.
The consensus estimate for foreign exchange revenues is pegged at $207 million, suggesting a rise of 11.9% from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate is $204.7 million, indicating a rise of 10.7%. The consensus mark for investment and other income of $100 million suggests a year-over-year decline of 21.3%. Our estimate for the same is $99.7 million, indicating a decline of 22.7%.
The consensus estimate for total fees and other revenues is pegged at $3.37 billion, suggesting a marginal decline from the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for the same is also $3.37 billion, indicating a marginal year-over-year decline.
Net Interest Revenues: The overall lending scenario continued to improve in the third quarter. In addition to loan growth, there was a rise in interest rates in the quarter. The Federal Reserve continued with its hawkish monetary policy stance, raising interest rates by another 150 basis points in the quarter. The policy rate reached 3.0-3.25%, the highest level since 2008.
Thus, despite the inversion of the yield curve, BNY Mellon’s interest income is expected to have been positively impacted in the quarter, supported by loan growth and higher rates. The consensus mark for NIR for the third quarter is pegged at $841 million, indicating 31.2% year-over-year growth. Our estimate for NIR is $815.1 million, suggesting a year-over-year rise of 27.2%.
Expenses: Because of higher litigation and restructuring charges, BNY Mellon’s expenses have been elevated over the past few years. Nevertheless, overall costs are expected to have been manageable in the quarter under review, given the elimination of unnecessary management layers.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
According to our quantitative model, the chances of BNY Mellon beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate this time are low. This is because it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better — which is required to increase the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for BNY Mellon is -0.15%.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks That Warrant a Look
A couple of finance stocks that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases, per our model, are Morgan Stanley (MS - Free Report) and Associated Banc-Corp (ASB - Free Report) .
The Earnings ESP for Morgan Stanley is +0.59% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is slated to report third-quarter 2022 results on Oct 14.
Associated Banc-Corp is scheduled to release third-quarter 2022 earnings on Oct 20. The company, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present, has an Earnings ESP of +2.39%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.