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British PM Truss Steps Down; Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, AAL Mixed

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Thursday, October 20, 2022

Ahead of today’s opening bell, plenty of economic and political data has hit the tape, sending moderate gains in pre-market activity notably higher at this hour. The Dow is currently trading +200 points, the S&P 500 +20 and the Nasdaq +60 points. These immediately blossomed from +160, +10 and +25 points, respectively, an hour prior to this morning’s opening bell.

The first event was the stepping down of British Prime Minister Liz Truss — the Tory who (in)famously tried to instate massive tax cuts in the U.K. as global interest rates climb aggressively. The Bank of England stepped in to backstop the subsequent tumbling pound before the administration announced a reverse-course in policy, but the dye had already been cast; Truss lasted 44 days in office. I guess the lettuce won!

Initial Jobless Claims, as we see most every Thursday morning, came in at the lowest level for a month: 214K, well off the expected 230K, and -12K from the downwardly revised 228K the previous week. We’re back down among historically robust employment levels with new weekly jobless claims this close to 200K (instead of 250K, where these numbers were headed).

Continuing Claims, reporting a week in arrears from Initial Claims, came in a bit hotter than expected: 1.385K was above the downwardly revised 1.364 million. Anything under 1.4 million is another indication of a robust labor market, and we haven’t seen that level since September. More good news for employment, even if this will help keep the Fed fastidious in its aggressive interest rate hikes for the time being.

Also, the Philly Fed survey this morning for the month of October came in lower than expected: -8.7 versus -5.0 expected, although off the -9.9 posted for September -12.3 we saw back in July. This marks the fourth lower print in the past five months on Philly Fed manufacturing; over the past 12 months, Philly Fed is averaging +9.4.

We have another big earnings day today, with American Airline (AAL - Free Report) beating earnings expectations — 69 cents per share versus 54 cents expected, and nicely rebounding from the year-ago -99 cents per share — on basically in-line revenues of $13.46 billion (technically a beat by 0.03%). For more on AAL’s earnings, click here.

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