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This 1 Consumer Discretionary Stock Could Beat Earnings: Why It Should Be on Your Radar
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Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Jakks Pacific?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Jakks Pacific (JAKK - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.81 a share, just two days from its upcoming earnings release on October 27, 2022.
JAKK has an Earnings ESP figure of +3.25%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $3.81 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.69. Jakks Pacific is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
JAKK is just one of a large group of Consumer Discretionary stocks with a positive ESP figure. Paramount Global-B (PARA - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Paramount Global-B is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on November 2, 2022. PARA's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.47 a share eight days from its next earnings release.
Paramount Global-B's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +5.68% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44.
JAKK and PARA's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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This 1 Consumer Discretionary Stock Could Beat Earnings: Why It Should Be on Your Radar
Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
The ability to identify stocks that are likely to top quarterly earnings expectations can be profitable, but it's no simple task. Here at Zacks, our Earnings ESP filter helps make things easier.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Jakks Pacific?
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Jakks Pacific (JAKK - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $3.81 a share, just two days from its upcoming earnings release on October 27, 2022.
JAKK has an Earnings ESP figure of +3.25%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $3.81 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.69. Jakks Pacific is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
JAKK is just one of a large group of Consumer Discretionary stocks with a positive ESP figure. Paramount Global-B (PARA - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Paramount Global-B is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on November 2, 2022. PARA's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.47 a share eight days from its next earnings release.
Paramount Global-B's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +5.68% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.44.
JAKK and PARA's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>