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Incyte (INCY) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Incyte Corporation (INCY - Free Report) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1, before market open.
The company’s earnings surprise history has been dismal so far, with its earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missing on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 2.13%. In the last reported quarter, Incyte beat earnings by 27.8%.
Shares of Incyte have risen 0.3% in the year so far against the industry’s decline of 24.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors at Play
Incyte primarily derives product revenues from sales of its lead drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib), in the United States as well as its other marketed drugs.
Patient demand for Jakafi, a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, in all approved indications (polycythemia vera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease [GvHD]) increased 13% year over year in the second quarter. The trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jakafi’s sales stands at $617 million.
Incyte also earns product royalty revenues from Novartis AG (NVS) for the commercialization of Jakafi in ex-U.S. markets. Novartis licensed ruxolitinib from Incyte for development and commercialization outside the United States.
Jakafi is marketed by Incyte in the United States and is marketed as Jakavi by Novartis outside the country. Jakavi sales, as recorded by Novartis, were up 4% in the third quarter, and hence, Incyte is likely to have received higher royalties from NVS in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is $96 million.
Incyte also receives royalties from the sales of Tabrecta (capmatinib), which is approved for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. Novartis has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights to Tabrecta.
While Jakafi’s sales and royalties are key catalysts for the company’s revenue growth, Iclusig’s sales and Olumiant’s royalties from Eli Lilly are likely to have contributed to the top line. Hence, these are likely to have aided the company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
Iclusig’s net product revenues were down year over year in the previous quarter and a similar trend is likely to have been witnessed by INCY in the to-be-reported quarter.
Incremental sales from newly approved drugs like Opzelura are also likely to have added to sales in the third quarter. The adoption of other newly approved drugs like Monjuvi is also a positive and is likely to have boosted sales in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Opzelura is $31 million.
Total costs and expenses increased 16.3% year over year in the second quarter and the same is likely to have increased in the third quarter due to a rise in R&D, selling, general and administrative expenses.
Key Pipeline Updates
In August 2022, the FDA approved Pemazyre (pemigatinib), a selective fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) inhibitor, for the treatment of adults with relapsed or refractory myeloid/lymphoid neoplasms (MLNs) with FGFR1 rearrangement. MLNs with FGFR1 rearrangement are extremely rare and aggressive blood cancers that may affect less than 1 in 100,000 people in the United States.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Incyte this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Incyte is -11.65% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at 74 cents per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at 65 cents per share.
Zacks Rank: INCY currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Incyte Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Here are some drug and biotech stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
Image: Bigstock
Incyte (INCY) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Incyte Corporation (INCY - Free Report) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1, before market open.
The company’s earnings surprise history has been dismal so far, with its earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters and missing on the other two occasions, the average negative surprise being 2.13%. In the last reported quarter, Incyte beat earnings by 27.8%.
Shares of Incyte have risen 0.3% in the year so far against the industry’s decline of 24.5%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the quarter to be reported.
Factors at Play
Incyte primarily derives product revenues from sales of its lead drug, Jakafi (ruxolitinib), in the United States as well as its other marketed drugs.
Patient demand for Jakafi, a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, in all approved indications (polycythemia vera, myelofibrosis and refractory acute graft-versus-host disease [GvHD]) increased 13% year over year in the second quarter. The trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter as well. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Jakafi’s sales stands at $617 million.
Incyte also earns product royalty revenues from Novartis AG (NVS) for the commercialization of Jakafi in ex-U.S. markets. Novartis licensed ruxolitinib from Incyte for development and commercialization outside the United States.
Jakafi is marketed by Incyte in the United States and is marketed as Jakavi by Novartis outside the country. Jakavi sales, as recorded by Novartis, were up 4% in the third quarter, and hence, Incyte is likely to have received higher royalties from NVS in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is $96 million.
Incyte also receives royalties from the sales of Tabrecta (capmatinib), which is approved for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. Novartis has exclusive worldwide development and commercialization rights to Tabrecta.
While Jakafi’s sales and royalties are key catalysts for the company’s revenue growth, Iclusig’s sales and Olumiant’s royalties from Eli Lilly are likely to have contributed to the top line. Hence, these are likely to have aided the company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
Iclusig’s net product revenues were down year over year in the previous quarter and a similar trend is likely to have been witnessed by INCY in the to-be-reported quarter.
Incremental sales from newly approved drugs like Opzelura are also likely to have added to sales in the third quarter. The adoption of other newly approved drugs like Monjuvi is also a positive and is likely to have boosted sales in the third quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Opzelura is $31 million.
Total costs and expenses increased 16.3% year over year in the second quarter and the same is likely to have increased in the third quarter due to a rise in R&D, selling, general and administrative expenses.
Key Pipeline Updates
In August 2022, the FDA approved Pemazyre (pemigatinib), a selective fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) inhibitor, for the treatment of adults with relapsed or refractory myeloid/lymphoid neoplasms (MLNs) with FGFR1 rearrangement. MLNs with FGFR1 rearrangement are extremely rare and aggressive blood cancers that may affect less than 1 in 100,000 people in the United States.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Incyte this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for Incyte is -11.65% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at 74 cents per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at 65 cents per share.
Zacks Rank: INCY currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Incyte Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Incyte Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Incyte Corporation Quote
Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug and biotech stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
Editas Medicine (EDIT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +3.47% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Earnings of EDIT beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered an earnings surprise of 17.82%, on average.
Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.12% and a Zacks Rank #2.
JAZZ beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the average earnings surprise being 10.94%.
Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.47% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Acadia topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.83%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.