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Big Retail Earnings Week Ahead

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It’s a colder, quieter start to the trading week than we’ve seen in quite sometime. Most of our market-moving catalysts are now so much water under the bridge, with major inflation reports like CPI already having reported last week and non-farm payrolls from a week prior to that. Pre-market futures are giving back some of last week’s gains at this hour: the Dow is -60 points, the S&P 500 -15 and the Nasdaq -70 points. This follows +8% gains on the Dow and Nasdaq last week, and +6% on the S&P.

Q3 earnings for major retailers commences this week, with big-boxes Walmart (WMT - Free Report) and Home Depot (HD - Free Report) out tomorrow, Target (TGT - Free Report) , TJX Companies (TJX - Free Report) and Lowe’s (LOW - Free Report) Wednesday, Macy’s (M - Free Report) and The Gap (GPS - Free Report) Thursday, and Buckle (BKE - Free Report) and Foot Locker (FL - Free Report) Friday. As important as earnings prints are for these companies, forward guidance for calendar Q4 holiday shopping season is arguably even more important.

Beyond the retailers, we’ll also hear from tech companies out with quarterly reports, such as NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) , Cisco Systems (CSCO - Free Report) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW - Free Report) . If there is a main catalyst for the markets this week, it may come from these earnings reports — either on the tech side or the retail side.

In addition, a new Producer Price Index (PPI) and Empire State manufacturing survey will be out Tuesday; Retail Sales, Import & Export Prices, and Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization on Wednesday; Housing Starts & Building Permits, New & Continuing Jobless Claims Thursday; and Existing Home Sales Friday. Today we start out slowly, perhaps hearing some choice remarks from the Federal Open Market Committee.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is up nearly 1000 points from its cycle lows last week, which had put the tech-heavy index at lows not seen since the first summer of the Covid pandemic. The Dow is now off its September 30th lows by more than 5000 points, which had struck their lowest levels in two years, while the mid-October lows on the S&P 500 are up more than 400 points since. Unless we see more turmoil in crypto related to the bottom falling out at FTX, we may be looking at 2022 lows already having been struck.

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