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How to Find Strong Medical Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
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Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Merck?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Merck (MRK - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.57 a share 13 days away from its upcoming earnings release on February 2, 2023.
Merck's Earnings ESP sits at +1.2%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.57 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55. MRK is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
MRK is part of a big group of Medical stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Ardelyx (ARDX - Free Report) as well.
Ardelyx is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 27, 2023. ARDX's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.03 a share 38 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ardelyx is $0.01, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +140%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, MRK and ARDX could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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How to Find Strong Medical Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Merck?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Merck (MRK - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.57 a share 13 days away from its upcoming earnings release on February 2, 2023.
Merck's Earnings ESP sits at +1.2%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.57 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55. MRK is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
MRK is part of a big group of Medical stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Ardelyx (ARDX - Free Report) as well.
Ardelyx is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on February 27, 2023. ARDX's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.03 a share 38 days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ardelyx is $0.01, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +140%.
Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, MRK and ARDX could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>