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In the Global Week Ahead, some of the biggest tech names in the U.S. report results.
At the same time, the U.S. federal government will hit its debt limit.
Surprising some across the Atlantic, Britain's FTSE100 share index flirts with a record high.
In Asia, Japan, New Zealand and Australia release consumer price inflation (CPI) data.
Global business activity data (PMIs) out this week can provide the latest insights into how protracted a global demand slowdown could prove.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
(1) Big Tech Reports Q4 Earnings
Results from the mega-cap tech and growth companies will test the nascent new year's rebound in tech shares.
Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) , the second biggest U.S. company by market value, reports on Tuesday, followed by Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) on Wednesday.
That's just the warm up for Apple (AAPL - Free Report) , the top U.S. firm and Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) the week after.
All told, companies worth more than half the S&P 500's market value are reporting results over the next two weeks.
Earnings season has had a tepid start. S&P500 companies are expected to post an overall -2.6% drop in Q4 earnings versus the year-ago period, according to Refinitiv IBES data.
Other market-moving catalysts could come from economic data, including new home sales on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Friday.
(2) The End of Bear Market Rallies?
Global stocks remain nearly -20% below their January 2022 record high. But MSCI's global share index is also on its longest winning streak since the depths of the bear market last October, as traders bet on economic conditions improving.
All eyes will be on purchasing managers indexes summarizing executives' views of the business climate, to see if the global economy really is heading somewhere less gloomy.
The JPMorgan Global Composite PMI in December lingered below the 50 benchmark separating expansion from contraction. It was also, at 48.2, a few ticks above November's 29-month low.
Stock markets can predict the global PMI levels, tending to bounce ahead of a sustainable rise of the index.
Improvements in PMI readings from developed economies will likely increase risk appetite.
Another downturn may cause the bears to roar again.
(3) London’s FTSE 100 Looks Strong
London's blue-chip FTSE 100 index is poised to launch a new attempt to scale an all-time high in days to come.
The rally is a sign, at least in part, that the so-called "moron premium" which weighed on British assets after the political turmoil of autumn 2022 is easing.
That's not the only thing helping the index outperform peers - its heavy weighting of miners and other commodity-focused stocks has received a boost from China's reopening.
The fact it is only just about to match its May 2018 record reflects the FTSE's weakness in recent years: The S&P 500 hit its record top in January 2022 and is currently +40% above May 2018 levels.
British public sector borrowing numbers, producer price inflation and PMI data are all due as well, ahead of a Bank of England meeting the following week.
(4) The U.S. Federal Government Hits Debt Ceiling
The U.S. government hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit amid a spat between the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Joe Biden's Democrats over raising the country’s debt ceiling - a standoff that could lead to a fiscal crisis, or at worst a default within months.
Immediate fallout might be limited, but risks will emerge closer to June, when the government approaches the date beyond which the Treasury will likely have exhausted emergency maneuvers to stave off default.
Legislative fights over the limit this last decade have largely been resolved before they hurt markets. But a lengthy standoff in 2011 prompted S&P to downgrade the U.S. credit rating for the first time.
U.S. credit default swaps - an instrument used to insure against default - have hit decade highs in recent days.
(5) Global Consumer Price inflation (CPI) Rates Hit the Tape
The Bank of Japan just sent a strong signal to the bond market: stop betting that the end of stimulus is near.
But data could fuel market speculation. Inflation renewed a more than four-decade high nationwide last month, and double the BOJ's 2% target. January figures for Tokyo could push even higher when they're released on Jan. 27.
While Japanese government bond yields remain subdued following the BOJ's unanimous decision to keep the status quo on Wednesday, currency markets tell a different story.
The yen retraced most of its big, knee-jerk drop on the same day of the decision, and is hovering near seven-month highs.
On Wednesday, watch out for Australian and New Zealand inflation data as well, with the RBNZ pondering how much more to tighten, and the RBA wondering whether it's time to pause.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Here are two major European fashion-cosmetics brand on our #1 list this week?
(1) LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY - Free Report) : This is a $169 a share European fashion company, headquartered in Paris, France, with a market cap of $423.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(2) Alibaba (BABA - Free Report) : This is $117 a share Mainland China tech stalwart, with a market cap of $308.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(3) L’Oreal (LRLCY - Free Report) : This is $82 a share Cosmetics stock, nearly a century old, with a market cap of $220.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
I can conclude here: The European discretionary consumer is not falling apart.
Key Global Macro
What’s big, in terms of macro prints, this week? On Friday, the Fed’s preferred consumer price inflation number, the core PCE, hits the tape.
On Monday, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for DEC comes out. The prior reading was -0.05.
On Tuesday, Japan’s Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI comes out for JAN. The consensus is for 48.9, while prior DEC reading was 48.9.
The Euro Area manufacturing PMI comes out. The JAN reading consensus is for 48.1, after a 47.8 print in DEC.
On Wednesday, Australia’s CPI should be +7.2% y/y. Their trimmed mean CPI should be +6.7% y/y.
On Thursday, U.S. new home sales for DEC should be a lower 0.618M, after 0.64M sold in JAN.
On Friday, the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for DEC comes out. The prior reading was +4.7% y/y. This is the Fed’s preferred consumer inflation number.
Keep an eye on the preliminary manufacturing PMIs out this week too.
Conclusion
On Friday January 20th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian summarized early Q4 earnings results.
Here are two data summaries:
(1) Including results from all the banks, we now have Q4 results from 55 S&P 500 members or 11% of the index’s total membership.
Total earnings for these 55 index members are down -10.8% from the same period last year on +7.4% higher revenues, with 67.3% beating EPS estimates and an equal proportion beating revenue estimates.
(2) With 86 index members on deck to report Q4 results this week (Jan 23rd to Jan 27th), we will have seen results from 141 index members or 28% of the index’s total membership.
From their peak in mid-April 2022, S&P500 earnings estimates have been revised down by -10.2% for the index as a whole and by -12.3% on an ex-Energy basis, with much bigger cuts to estimates for the Construction, Consumer Discretionary, Retail, Tech and Aerospace sectors.
Have a great trading week!
Warm Regards,
John Blank
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Big Tech Reports: Global Week Ahead
In the Global Week Ahead, some of the biggest tech names in the U.S. report results.
At the same time, the U.S. federal government will hit its debt limit.
Surprising some across the Atlantic, Britain's FTSE100 share index flirts with a record high.
In Asia, Japan, New Zealand and Australia release consumer price inflation (CPI) data.
Global business activity data (PMIs) out this week can provide the latest insights into how protracted a global demand slowdown could prove.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—
(1) Big Tech Reports Q4 Earnings
Results from the mega-cap tech and growth companies will test the nascent new year's rebound in tech shares.
Microsoft (MSFT - Free Report) , the second biggest U.S. company by market value, reports on Tuesday, followed by Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) on Wednesday.
That's just the warm up for Apple (AAPL - Free Report) , the top U.S. firm and Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL - Free Report) the week after.
All told, companies worth more than half the S&P 500's market value are reporting results over the next two weeks.
Earnings season has had a tepid start. S&P500 companies are expected to post an overall -2.6% drop in Q4 earnings versus the year-ago period, according to Refinitiv IBES data.
Other market-moving catalysts could come from economic data, including new home sales on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Friday.
(2) The End of Bear Market Rallies?
Global stocks remain nearly -20% below their January 2022 record high. But MSCI's global share index is also on its longest winning streak since the depths of the bear market last October, as traders bet on economic conditions improving.
All eyes will be on purchasing managers indexes summarizing executives' views of the business climate, to see if the global economy really is heading somewhere less gloomy.
The JPMorgan Global Composite PMI in December lingered below the 50 benchmark separating expansion from contraction. It was also, at 48.2, a few ticks above November's 29-month low.
Stock markets can predict the global PMI levels, tending to bounce ahead of a sustainable rise of the index.
Improvements in PMI readings from developed economies will likely increase risk appetite.
Another downturn may cause the bears to roar again.
(3) London’s FTSE 100 Looks Strong
London's blue-chip FTSE 100 index is poised to launch a new attempt to scale an all-time high in days to come.
The rally is a sign, at least in part, that the so-called "moron premium" which weighed on British assets after the political turmoil of autumn 2022 is easing.
That's not the only thing helping the index outperform peers - its heavy weighting of miners and other commodity-focused stocks has received a boost from China's reopening.
The fact it is only just about to match its May 2018 record reflects the FTSE's weakness in recent years: The S&P 500 hit its record top in January 2022 and is currently +40% above May 2018 levels.
British public sector borrowing numbers, producer price inflation and PMI data are all due as well, ahead of a Bank of England meeting the following week.
(4) The U.S. Federal Government Hits Debt Ceiling
The U.S. government hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit amid a spat between the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Joe Biden's Democrats over raising the country’s debt ceiling - a standoff that could lead to a fiscal crisis, or at worst a default within months.
Immediate fallout might be limited, but risks will emerge closer to June, when the government approaches the date beyond which the Treasury will likely have exhausted emergency maneuvers to stave off default.
Legislative fights over the limit this last decade have largely been resolved before they hurt markets. But a lengthy standoff in 2011 prompted S&P to downgrade the U.S. credit rating for the first time.
U.S. credit default swaps - an instrument used to insure against default - have hit decade highs in recent days.
(5) Global Consumer Price inflation (CPI) Rates Hit the Tape
The Bank of Japan just sent a strong signal to the bond market: stop betting that the end of stimulus is near.
But data could fuel market speculation. Inflation renewed a more than four-decade high nationwide last month, and double the BOJ's 2% target. January figures for Tokyo could push even higher when they're released on Jan. 27.
While Japanese government bond yields remain subdued following the BOJ's unanimous decision to keep the status quo on Wednesday, currency markets tell a different story.
The yen retraced most of its big, knee-jerk drop on the same day of the decision, and is hovering near seven-month highs.
On Wednesday, watch out for Australian and New Zealand inflation data as well, with the RBNZ pondering how much more to tighten, and the RBA wondering whether it's time to pause.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
Here are two major European fashion-cosmetics brand on our #1 list this week?
(1) LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY - Free Report) : This is a $169 a share European fashion company, headquartered in Paris, France, with a market cap of $423.6B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(2) Alibaba (BABA - Free Report) : This is $117 a share Mainland China tech stalwart, with a market cap of $308.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of C, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of C.
(3) L’Oreal (LRLCY - Free Report) : This is $82 a share Cosmetics stock, nearly a century old, with a market cap of $220.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
I can conclude here: The European discretionary consumer is not falling apart.
Key Global Macro
What’s big, in terms of macro prints, this week? On Friday, the Fed’s preferred consumer price inflation number, the core PCE, hits the tape.
On Monday, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for DEC comes out. The prior reading was -0.05.
On Tuesday, Japan’s Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI comes out for JAN. The consensus is for 48.9, while prior DEC reading was 48.9.
The Euro Area manufacturing PMI comes out. The JAN reading consensus is for 48.1, after a 47.8 print in DEC.
On Wednesday, Australia’s CPI should be +7.2% y/y. Their trimmed mean CPI should be +6.7% y/y.
On Thursday, U.S. new home sales for DEC should be a lower 0.618M, after 0.64M sold in JAN.
On Friday, the U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for DEC comes out. The prior reading was +4.7% y/y. This is the Fed’s preferred consumer inflation number.
Keep an eye on the preliminary manufacturing PMIs out this week too.
Conclusion
On Friday January 20th, Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian summarized early Q4 earnings results.
Here are two data summaries:
(1) Including results from all the banks, we now have Q4 results from 55 S&P 500 members or 11% of the index’s total membership.
Total earnings for these 55 index members are down -10.8% from the same period last year on +7.4% higher revenues, with 67.3% beating EPS estimates and an equal proportion beating revenue estimates.
(2) With 86 index members on deck to report Q4 results this week (Jan 23rd to Jan 27th), we will have seen results from 141 index members or 28% of the index’s total membership.
From their peak in mid-April 2022, S&P500 earnings estimates have been revised down by -10.2% for the index as a whole and by -12.3% on an ex-Energy basis, with much bigger cuts to estimates for the Construction, Consumer Discretionary, Retail, Tech and Aerospace sectors.
Have a great trading week!
Warm Regards,
John Blank