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Can Pfizer (PFE) Beat Expectations This Earnings Season?
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We expect Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 results on Jan 31, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 21.09%.
The drug giant’s performance has been mixed with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.58% on average.
Pfizer’s stock has declined 14.2% in the past year against an increase of 13.8% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Note
Direct sales and alliance revenues from partner BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty and Pfizer’s oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid are expected to have been key contributors to Pfizer’s sales in the fourth quarter.
As far as Comirnaty is concerned, third-quarter outside U.S. sales were hurt by a shift in scheduled deliveries to the fourth quarter as well as slower demand in emerging markets. While slower demand in emerging markets is likely to have continued, the benefit from the shift in deliveries is likely to have aided sales. In the United States, deliveries of the newly authorized Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent booster, including for under five years of age (approval in December), is likely to have boosted sales of Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty.
Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $7.57 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $4.96 billion.
Excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid, higher alliance revenues from Pfizer’s key brand, Eliquis, higher sales of Prevnar family of vaccines and drugs like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax are likely to have contributed to sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eliquis alliance revenue is $1.55 billion, Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.47 million and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $633 million.
However, sales of key medicine, Ibrance in the United States are likely to have declined due to increased competitive pressure and an increase in the proportion of patients using Pfizer’s Patient Assistance Program (which provides Ibrance free of charge to certain low-income patients). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ibrance is $1.29 billion, while our estimate is $1.26 billion.
Sales of some key drugs like Xeljanz, Sutent and Enbrel in international markets are likely to have declined in the fourth quarter, continuing the trend of the past few quarters. While Sutent sales are expected to have been hurt due to the loss of exclusivity, sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt due to biosimilar competition. Lower prescription volumes globally as doctors’ prescribing patterns shift away from JAK inhibitors following label warnings are likely to have hurt Xeljanz’s sales in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xeljanz and Enbrel is pegged at $524 million and $226 million, respectively while our estimate is $475.5 million and $245.9 million, respectively.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Pfizer in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Pfizer’s Earnings ESP is +0.48% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.06 is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Sanofi’s stock has declined 4.8% in the past year. Sanofi beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. SNY has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 9.50%, on average. SNY is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 3.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.25% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 46.0% in the past year. Novo Nordisk topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.09%, on average. NVO is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 1.
Image: Bigstock
Can Pfizer (PFE) Beat Expectations This Earnings Season?
We expect Pfizer (PFE - Free Report) to beat expectations when it reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 results on Jan 31, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings expectations by 21.09%.
The drug giant’s performance has been mixed with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.58% on average.
Pfizer Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Pfizer Inc. price-eps-surprise | Pfizer Inc. Quote
Pfizer’s stock has declined 14.2% in the past year against an increase of 13.8% for the industry.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Factors to Note
Direct sales and alliance revenues from partner BioNTech (BNTX - Free Report) for the COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty and Pfizer’s oral antiviral pill for COVID, Paxlovid are expected to have been key contributors to Pfizer’s sales in the fourth quarter.
As far as Comirnaty is concerned, third-quarter outside U.S. sales were hurt by a shift in scheduled deliveries to the fourth quarter as well as slower demand in emerging markets. While slower demand in emerging markets is likely to have continued, the benefit from the shift in deliveries is likely to have aided sales. In the United States, deliveries of the newly authorized Omicron BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent booster, including for under five years of age (approval in December), is likely to have boosted sales of Pfizer/BioNTech’s Comirnaty.
Our estimate for direct sales and alliance revenues from Comirnaty is $7.57 billion, while that for Paxlovid is $4.96 billion.
Excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid, higher alliance revenues from Pfizer’s key brand, Eliquis, higher sales of Prevnar family of vaccines and drugs like Vyndaqel/Vyndamax are likely to have contributed to sales growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Eliquis alliance revenue is $1.55 billion, Prevnar family of vaccines is $1.47 million and Vyndaqel/Vyndamax is $633 million.
However, sales of key medicine, Ibrance in the United States are likely to have declined due to increased competitive pressure and an increase in the proportion of patients using Pfizer’s Patient Assistance Program (which provides Ibrance free of charge to certain low-income patients). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Ibrance is $1.29 billion, while our estimate is $1.26 billion.
Sales of some key drugs like Xeljanz, Sutent and Enbrel in international markets are likely to have declined in the fourth quarter, continuing the trend of the past few quarters. While Sutent sales are expected to have been hurt due to the loss of exclusivity, sales of Enbrel in key European markets and Japan are likely to have been hurt due to biosimilar competition. Lower prescription volumes globally as doctors’ prescribing patterns shift away from JAK inhibitors following label warnings are likely to have hurt Xeljanz’s sales in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Xeljanz and Enbrel is pegged at $524 million and $226 million, respectively while our estimate is $475.5 million and $245.9 million, respectively.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Pfizer in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: Pfizer’s Earnings ESP is +0.48% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.06 is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Sanofi (SNY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.22% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Sanofi’s stock has declined 4.8% in the past year. Sanofi beat earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. SNY has a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 9.50%, on average. SNY is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 3.
Novo Nordisk (NVO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +11.25% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen 46.0% in the past year. Novo Nordisk topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters and has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.09%, on average. NVO is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results on Feb 1.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.