Across the Global Week Ahead, the latest Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data is the major trader focus.

U.S. CPI data lands Tuesday. U.K. CPI data lands Wednesday.

Traders in stock markets have already bet central banks will start to cut borrowing rates later this year.

That puts Tuesday's U.S. CPI data on the must-watch list.

In Asia, who replaces Haruhiko Kuroda as the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) chief is a focus, with government nominations likely soon.

Meanwhile, in earthquake-hit Turkey, an enormous humanitarian crisis causes an outpouring of concern.

There is also a sense. This disaster could dominate the Turkish general election, scheduled for June 18th, 2023.

That election might be held early on May 14th, a date that makes a reference to the 1950 Turkish election that ended Turkey’s one-party regime.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—

(1) On Tuesday, the January U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data lands.

Surprisingly strong January U.S. jobs data forced markets to rethink the view that interest rates will peak soon.

Now, Tuesday's latest inflation figure is the next big test for where the Federal Reserve takes rates in coming months.

After rising to multi-decade highs last year, inflation has come in below expectations for three straight months, given the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign since the 1980s.

Economists expect headline inflation to rise 0.5% in January after dipping 0.1% in December.

Stock markets are confident that the Fed can bring down inflation without triggering a sharp growth slowdown.

A strong inflation print could spark another rethink on whether the Fed will actually cut rates by year-end — potentially hurting a rally that has boosted stocks and bonds after last year's rout.

(2) On Wednesday, the U.K. delivers Jan. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data.

Spare some Valentine's Day love for British consumers.

January's inflation report on Wednesday could show double-digit price rises, meaning no respite yet on the interest-rate front.

With inflation-adjusted pay falling at its fastest since 2009, retail sales in December — when people are likely to splurge — fell by the most for that month in at least 25 years.

Friday's January retail sales data won't be much prettier. Consumers are certainly borrowing. Latest data shows credit card lending is around its highest since 2020, but that spending is not on houses — mortgage approvals are at 2009 lows — or out at the shops.

With grocery price inflation at nearly 17% and energy bills tipped to rise 20% this year, food and heating may be where any spare cash is going — not a good sign for the only G7 economy the IMF expects to shrink this year.

(3) Does the Chinese balloon incident have market implications?

A strident U.S. response to a so-called a Chinese "spy balloon" in early February could be a bearish signal for one of this year's most favored trades.

Chinese stocks and the offshore renminbi have been popular with investors as Beijing relaxed COVID restrictions that had dragged down growth in the world's No.2 economy to one of its lowest rates on record last year.

U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed to "protect" the country from Chinese “threats," following pressure from Republican lawmakers to toughen up on Beijing.

U.S.-China tensions are not new, but they have become fraught since former White House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last year. And almost a year on since Russia invaded Ukraine, investors know not to ignore geopolitical risks.

(4) Who is going to run the Bank of Japan (BoJ)?

Japan's government is set to nominate a dark horse candidate to replace Haruhiko Kuroda, whose decade as Bank of Japan chief will end soon.

Deputy governor Masayoshi Amamiya was pick of the press and economists, but a Nikkei report on Friday suggests that Kazuo Ueda, a 71-year-old academic and a former member of the BOJ policy board, will be nominated.

The yen strengthened on the report, a curve ball to markets betting on Amamiya, known as "Mr. BOJ" for driving unconventional monetary policies, to take over.

According to the Nikkei, Amamiya declined the top job when approached.

Markets are watching closely. After all, at stake is the future of an ultra-loose monetary policy, which many suspect is likely to shift as inflation moves higher.

(5) Effects from the massive earthquake near Turkey’s border with Syria.

There's global concern for Turkey and neighboring Syria where an earthquake has led to a humanitarian disaster with the death toll now over 36,000.

There's also acknowledgement that President Tayyip Erdogan's handling of the crisis could dominate the run-up to May's elections, with the rush to save lives overtaking a poll expected to be defined by soaring inflation and regional security.

Turkey's 2002 election — three years after a 7.6 magnitude earthquake near Istanbul that killed nearly 18,000 people — saw the then-coalition government decisively ousted as voters viewed its disaster and subsequent financial crisis response as poor.

As the struggle to safe lives continues, presidential and parliamentary elections — perhaps the most consequential in the century-long history of the republic — will determine whether Erdogan enters his third decade in power.

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

On our latest list of top picks, I see a large Chinese multi-line insurance company, a large Australian bank and a large Japanese P&C insurance company.

(1) Ping An Insurance Co. of China (PNGAY Quick QuotePNGAY - Free Report) : This is a $15 a share Chinese multi-line insurance company, with a market cap of $137.7B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of F and a Zacks Momentum score of F.

(2) Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CMWAY Quick QuoteCMWAY - Free Report) : This is a $76 a share Aussie bank, with a market cap of $129B. I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of D and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

(3) Tokio Marine (TKOMY Quick QuoteTKOMY - Free Report) : This is a $20 a share Japanese property and casualty insurance company, with a market cap of $124.2B. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of F and a Zacks Momentum score of A.

Note: Each financial sector entity shows a poor long-term Zacks Growth score of D or F.

Key Global Macro

Tuesday’s U.S. CPI data is the major focus.

But there are loads of CPI prints out from other major developed countries, all week long.

On Monday, the Swiss CPI for January is out, posting a better-than expected +3.3% year over year (y/y) — up from a +2.5% y/y consensus, with +2.8% y/y as the prior reading.

On Tuesday, New Zealand’s RBNZ inflation expectations for Q1 come out. The prior reading s 3.62%.

The all-important U.S. CPI data lands at 8:30 ET. For January, look for a broad CPI at +5.8%, with the prior at +6.5%. The core CPI should be +5.3%, down from a prior of +5.7%.

On Wednesday, the U.K.’s broad CPI should decline to +10.2% y/y from +10.5%. The core CPI should rise to +6.4% y/y from +6.3%.

U.S. retail sales for JAN should be up +0.1% m/m. Ex-Autos, retail sales will be up +0.6%. This still shows positive momentum.

On Thursday, Australia’s consumer inflation expectations for FEB are out. They are looking for +5.6% y/y. That is the same as their prior reading.

U.S. building permits (1.334M is consensus, 1.337M is prior) and housing starts (1.404M is consensus, 1.382M is prior) come out. These data are staying strong.

On Friday, the French CPI for JAN should be +7.0% y/y. The prior reading was +7.0% too.

Conclusion

I finish with Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian’s latest Q4-22 earnings highlights:

(1) For the 300 S&P500 companies that have reported Q4-22 results, total earnings are down -6.7% from the same period last year on +5.7% higher revenues.

71.0% are beating EPS estimates and 69.0% are beating revenue estimates.

(2) Looking at Q4-22 as a whole, aggregate S&P500 earnings are currently expected to be down -5.8% on +5.3% higher revenues.

Excluding the Energy sector’s strong contribution, Q422 earnings for the rest of the index are expected to be down -9.8% on +4.3% higher revenues.

(3) For Q1-23, S&P500 earnings are currently expected to be down -7.5% on +2.1% higher revenues.

This is down from -4% on January 6th and -2.9% in mid-December 2022.

Estimates for Q2-23 have risen over the last few weeks as a result of positive revisions to Energy sector estimates offsetting estimate cuts elsewhere.

(4) Looking at the calendar-year picture, total S&P500 earnings are on track to be up +4.1% in 2022 and expected to come in flat (0.0%) in 2023.

On an ex-Energy basis, total 2022 index earnings would be down -2.6% (instead of +4.1%, with Energy) while 2023 earnings would be up +1.0% (instead of flat 0.0%).

Sheraz writes, “The Q4 earnings season continues to show that while growth is moderating and decelerating, it isn’t falling off the cliff that many appeared to fear could be in store for us.”

Have a great trading week.

Warm Regards,

John Blank