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Verona (VRNA) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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We expect investors to focus on the updates related to Verona Pharma’s (VRNA - Free Report) regulatory pathway for its lead pipeline candidate when it reports fourth-quarter 2022 results.

In the trailing 12 months period, shares of Verona Pharma have skyrocketed 275.6% against the industry’s 10.0% fall.

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Verona Pharma’s earnings surpassed expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, witnessing an average surprise of 15.87%. In the last reported quarter, SNDX witnessed an earnings surprise of 20.00%.

 

Let’s see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.

Factors to Consider

In the absence of an approved/marketed product in its portfolio, the focus of the fourth quarter earnings call will be on updates related to Verona Pharma’s pipeline.

Verona has only one product in its pipeline, ensifentrine, which is being developed to target multiple respiratory diseases.

Verona’s progress on the development of a nebulized form of ensifentrine for the maintenance treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been encouraging. The candidate is being evaluated in the phase III ENHANCE clinical program, which consists of two-phase III studies — ENHANCE-1 and ENHANCE-2. While the ENHANCE-2 study assessed participants over a 24-week treatment period, the ENHANCE-1 study assessed the study participants over 24-week and 48-week periods.

During the second half of 2022, management announced that both studies in the ENHANCE program achieved their primary endpoint and secondary endpoints evaluating lung function. Data from both studies showed that treatment with ensifentrine significantly reduced the rate and risk of COPD exacerbations. The candidate was tolerated over both 24-week and 48-week periods.

Overall, pooled exacerbation data from both studies in the ENHANCE program showed a 40% reduction in the rate of moderate to severe COPD exacerbations in patients who were treated with ensifentrine over a 24-week period when compared to those receiving placebo.

Based on data from these studies, a regulatory filing with the FDA for ensifentrine in COPD is expected in first-half 2023. Management expects to commercially launch the product next year.

To ensure a successful commercial launch for ensifentrine, Verona has also secured a $150 million non-dilutive debt financing facility. This financing, combined with Verona’s existing cash runway, is expected to support business operations through at least 2025.

Investors will likely expect an update on the company’s launch plans and regulatory pathway for ensifentrine at the upcoming earnings call.

Management has been recording a decline in R&D expenses in recent quarters as the company is progressing toward completing both studies in the ENHANCE program. We expect this declining trend to continue in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for Verona Pharma this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Verona Pharma has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as both the Most Accurate Estimate and Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 22 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Verona Pharma currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few other stocks worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Alkermes (ALKS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +49.57% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Alkermes’ stock has risen 18.7% in the past year. Earnings of Alkermes beat estimates in three of the last four quarters while meeting the mark on another. On average, Alkermes witnessed a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 306.73%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Alkermes’ earnings met estimates. Alkermes is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 16, before market open.

Allogene (ALLO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +25.70% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Allogene’s stock has declined 30.3% in the past year. Earnings of Allogene beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, witnessing a trailing four-quarter positive earnings surprise of 9.44%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Allogene’s earnings beat estimates by 6.45%.

Bayer (BAYRY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Bayer’s stock has risen 6.1% in the past year. Bayer beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. Bayer has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.23%, on average. In the last reported quarter, Bayer’s earnings missed estimates by 3.33%. BAYRY is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2022 results on Feb 28.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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