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In the Global Week Ahead, a raft of U.S. data and European inflation numbers will give guidance on how the world's top central banks will navigate the way forward.
Including whether we're heading for that hotly debated "no landing" scenario.
In Asia, China's post Lunar New Year business activity data will give a reading of the health of the world's number-two economy.
In Africa, Nigerians head to the polls in the first of this year's key emerging market elections.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders:
(1) The Fed vs. Stocks
Reports on U.S. Durable Goods Orders, home prices as well as manufacturing and consumer confidence threaten to cement expectations of more Fed rate hikes and to deal a knockout punch to the early-year stocks rally.
Evidence of a stronger-than-expected economy has forced investors to recalibrate projections for Fed hawkishness, lifting bond yields and weighing on stock gains.
The S&P500 has managed to hang on to a +4.5% year-to-date gain but is well off its highs.
Tuesday's consumer confidence data may be of particular interest, offering a glimpse into households' views on economic prospects and inflation expectations.
Economists polled by Reuters expect a median reading of 109.5 on the index, which unexpectedly fell in January.
(2) The Idea of “No Landing” for the Global Economy
Are economic conditions becoming too rosy for markets to bear?
The idea of "no landing," which upends a host of popular trades based on the scenario of the global economy entering recession is gaining traction thanks to surprisingly upbeat data.
China has reopened from COVID lockdowns, U.S. labor markets are booming and consumer spending is holding up, while Europe's energy crisis has eased.
Still, inflation remains sticky, which could keep big central banks on their hawkish path of raising interest rates further.
This is inconvenient for investors who bought government bonds and bet on a softer dollar this year, expecting economies would decelerate and central banks would pause rate-hike campaigns.
A soft landing could still happen.
But if data in coming days signal that growth and inflation remain robust, equity and bond markets may turn lower still.
(3) Inflation Data from the Eurozone
It's inflation week in the Euro-area. Preliminary February data from Germany, France, Spain and Portugal are due on Monday and Tuesday, followed by the bloc-wide flash number on Thursday.
Price pressures are abating: headline Euro-area inflation eased to 8.6% in January from 9.2% a month earlier. Still, Thursday's numbers are unlikely to placate European Central Bank hawks pushing for aggressive rate hikes to continue.
Focus will likely stay on core inflation, stripping out volatile food and energy prices. It's proving stubborn and could still rise from January's 5.3%.
Markets have got the message and renewed bets on the ECB 2.5% depo rate moving higher. Deutsche Bank just raised its forecast for the peak in ECB rates to 3.75% from 3.25%.
(4) Data on China’s Reopening
China's reopening came fast and furious after a three-year lull.
Wednesday's PMI releases could show whether factory activity in the world's second-largest economy has returned with a bang or a whimper after the Lunar New Year break.
Strong figures could revive some of the waning enthusiasm for the reopening trade, where optimism seems to be fizzling out. The A-share blue-chip CSI 300 Index is largely flat on the month after surging 7% in January.
Retail investors are sitting out the stocks rally, and the recent disappearance of star Chinese dealmaker Bao Fan has investors worrying that Beijing's regulatory crackdowns are far from over.
Escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing over a suspected Chinese spy balloon and Taiwan loom large over the China investment thesis.
(5) Countries Going to the Polls
Nigerians vote on Saturday in what could be their most credible and close electoral contest since military rule ended nearly a quarter of a century ago. It's also the first election in which a presidential candidate who is not from one of the two main parties stands a chance.
Whomever Nigerians choose to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari will have to resolve a litany of crises that have worsened under the current administration — from widespread banditry and militant violence to systemic corruption, and from high inflation to widespread cash shortages.
Many other emerging market economies are also approaching election crossroads.
Turkey's government under President Tayyip Erdogan could hold elections in the wake of the devastating earthquake as scheduled in June.
Argentina's Peronists are seeking re-election in October and Pakistan voters will likely head to the ballot box the same month.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I found a solid mix of large-cap stocks on our #1 list this week:
(1) Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) : This is a $132 a share U.S. oil refinery company, with a market cap of $50.3B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
(2) Anglo American (NGLOY - Free Report) : This is an $18 a share global mining company, with a market cap of $49.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(3) Hershey (HSY - Free Report) : This is a $240 a share U.S. food confectionary company, with a market cap of $49.1B. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
A strong Energy sector company, a strong Miner, and a strong Food company?
That does not spell “global recession.”
Key Global Macro
On Monday, U.S. pending home sales for January have just come out, surprising analysts to the upside: +8.1%, versus +1% expected. The downwardly revised -33.9% y/y the previous month moved up to -24.1%, the healthiest level since August of last year.
This has continued to come down following the October/November low plateau -36.8%, the lowest pending home sales level on record, going back 20 years.
On Tuesday, the 2-month lagging Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December comes out. I see a -0.1% m/m prior go down to -0.6% m/m here too.
On Wednesday, Mainland China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI comes out for February. I see a 49.2 prior reading sticks around, with 49.1 as consensus. No surprise with central planning.
The ISM manufacturing PMI comes out for February. I see a 47.4 prior reading gets to 47.9. Still contractionary.
On Thursday, Euro-area core harmonized prices for February come out. I see +5.3% y/y is the prior mark.
The Euro-area unemployment rate for January may go to 6.5%, after a 6.6% prior reading.
On Friday, the U.S. ISM services PMI for February should get to 52.4, after a 55.2 prior reading.
That shows U.S. services slowing, finally.
Conclusion
There is a small surprise in the calendar of macro events.
The key U.S. February nonfarm payroll data lands at the end of the next week.
Not this Friday, March 3rd.
Instead, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) gets the U.S. February nonfarm payrolls out on Friday, March 10th at 8:30 am EST.
Have a Great Trading Week!
Regards,
John Blank Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist
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U.S. Housing Markets Are Slow: Global Week Ahead
In the Global Week Ahead, a raft of U.S. data and European inflation numbers will give guidance on how the world's top central banks will navigate the way forward.
Including whether we're heading for that hotly debated "no landing" scenario.
In Asia, China's post Lunar New Year business activity data will give a reading of the health of the world's number-two economy.
In Africa, Nigerians head to the polls in the first of this year's key emerging market elections.
Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders:
(1) The Fed vs. Stocks
Reports on U.S. Durable Goods Orders, home prices as well as manufacturing and consumer confidence threaten to cement expectations of more Fed rate hikes and to deal a knockout punch to the early-year stocks rally.
Evidence of a stronger-than-expected economy has forced investors to recalibrate projections for Fed hawkishness, lifting bond yields and weighing on stock gains.
The S&P500 has managed to hang on to a +4.5% year-to-date gain but is well off its highs.
Tuesday's consumer confidence data may be of particular interest, offering a glimpse into households' views on economic prospects and inflation expectations.
Economists polled by Reuters expect a median reading of 109.5 on the index, which unexpectedly fell in January.
(2) The Idea of “No Landing” for the Global Economy
Are economic conditions becoming too rosy for markets to bear?
The idea of "no landing," which upends a host of popular trades based on the scenario of the global economy entering recession is gaining traction thanks to surprisingly upbeat data.
China has reopened from COVID lockdowns, U.S. labor markets are booming and consumer spending is holding up, while Europe's energy crisis has eased.
Still, inflation remains sticky, which could keep big central banks on their hawkish path of raising interest rates further.
This is inconvenient for investors who bought government bonds and bet on a softer dollar this year, expecting economies would decelerate and central banks would pause rate-hike campaigns.
A soft landing could still happen.
But if data in coming days signal that growth and inflation remain robust, equity and bond markets may turn lower still.
(3) Inflation Data from the Eurozone
It's inflation week in the Euro-area. Preliminary February data from Germany, France, Spain and Portugal are due on Monday and Tuesday, followed by the bloc-wide flash number on Thursday.
Price pressures are abating: headline Euro-area inflation eased to 8.6% in January from 9.2% a month earlier. Still, Thursday's numbers are unlikely to placate European Central Bank hawks pushing for aggressive rate hikes to continue.
Focus will likely stay on core inflation, stripping out volatile food and energy prices. It's proving stubborn and could still rise from January's 5.3%.
Markets have got the message and renewed bets on the ECB 2.5% depo rate moving higher. Deutsche Bank just raised its forecast for the peak in ECB rates to 3.75% from 3.25%.
(4) Data on China’s Reopening
China's reopening came fast and furious after a three-year lull.
Wednesday's PMI releases could show whether factory activity in the world's second-largest economy has returned with a bang or a whimper after the Lunar New Year break.
Strong figures could revive some of the waning enthusiasm for the reopening trade, where optimism seems to be fizzling out. The A-share blue-chip CSI 300 Index is largely flat on the month after surging 7% in January.
Retail investors are sitting out the stocks rally, and the recent disappearance of star Chinese dealmaker Bao Fan has investors worrying that Beijing's regulatory crackdowns are far from over.
Escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing over a suspected Chinese spy balloon and Taiwan loom large over the China investment thesis.
(5) Countries Going to the Polls
Nigerians vote on Saturday in what could be their most credible and close electoral contest since military rule ended nearly a quarter of a century ago. It's also the first election in which a presidential candidate who is not from one of the two main parties stands a chance.
Whomever Nigerians choose to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari will have to resolve a litany of crises that have worsened under the current administration — from widespread banditry and militant violence to systemic corruption, and from high inflation to widespread cash shortages.
Many other emerging market economies are also approaching election crossroads.
Turkey's government under President Tayyip Erdogan could hold elections in the wake of the devastating earthquake as scheduled in June.
Argentina's Peronists are seeking re-election in October and Pakistan voters will likely head to the ballot box the same month.
Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks
I found a solid mix of large-cap stocks on our #1 list this week:
(1) Valero Energy (VLO - Free Report) : This is a $132 a share U.S. oil refinery company, with a market cap of $50.3B. I see a Zacks Value score of A, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
(2) Anglo American (NGLOY - Free Report) : This is an $18 a share global mining company, with a market cap of $49.4B. I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of B and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
(3) Hershey (HSY - Free Report) : This is a $240 a share U.S. food confectionary company, with a market cap of $49.1B. I see a Zacks Value score of D, a Zacks Growth score of C and a Zacks Momentum score of B.
A strong Energy sector company, a strong Miner, and a strong Food company?
That does not spell “global recession.”
Key Global Macro
On Monday, U.S. pending home sales for January have just come out, surprising analysts to the upside: +8.1%, versus +1% expected. The downwardly revised -33.9% y/y the previous month moved up to -24.1%, the healthiest level since August of last year.
This has continued to come down following the October/November low plateau -36.8%, the lowest pending home sales level on record, going back 20 years.
On Tuesday, the 2-month lagging Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December comes out. I see a -0.1% m/m prior go down to -0.6% m/m here too.
On Wednesday, Mainland China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI comes out for February. I see a 49.2 prior reading sticks around, with 49.1 as consensus. No surprise with central planning.
The ISM manufacturing PMI comes out for February. I see a 47.4 prior reading gets to 47.9. Still contractionary.
On Thursday, Euro-area core harmonized prices for February come out. I see +5.3% y/y is the prior mark.
The Euro-area unemployment rate for January may go to 6.5%, after a 6.6% prior reading.
On Friday, the U.S. ISM services PMI for February should get to 52.4, after a 55.2 prior reading.
That shows U.S. services slowing, finally.
Conclusion
There is a small surprise in the calendar of macro events.
The key U.S. February nonfarm payroll data lands at the end of the next week.
Not this Friday, March 3rd.
Instead, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) gets the U.S. February nonfarm payrolls out on Friday, March 10th at 8:30 am EST.
Have a Great Trading Week!
Regards,
John Blank
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist