A month has gone by since the last earnings report for MPLX LP (MPLX Quick QuoteMPLX - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 0.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is MPLX LP due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

MPLX Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Beat

MPLX reported fourth-quarter 2022 earnings of 78 cents per unit, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 84 cents. The bottom line was in line with the year-ago quarter’s 78 cents.

Total quarterly revenues of $2,662 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,553 million. However, the top line declined from the prior-year quarter’s $2,734 million.

Lower-than-expected quarterly earnings resulted from lower contributions from gathering and processing operations. The negatives were partially offset by lower contributions from gathering and processing operations, and declining costs and expenses.

Segmental Highlights

MPLX’s adjusted EBITDA from the Logistics and Storage segment increased from $934 million a year ago to $979 million.  Higher pipeline tariff rates and contributions from joint ventures aided the segment. Total pipeline throughputs for the fourth quarter were 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd), almost flat from the year-ago period.

Adjusted EBITDA from the Gathering and Processing segment was $475 million, down from $511 million in the prior-year quarter. The segment was affected by a decline in natural gas liquid prices. Gathered volumes averaged 6.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), suggesting a 14% increase from the year-ago period. Processed volumes of 8.6 Bcf/d marked a 1% increase from the year-ago quarter.

Costs and Expenses

For fourth-quarter 2022, total costs and expenses of MPLX were $1,602 million, down from the year-ago quarter’s $1,678 million.

Cash Flow

Distributable cash flow attributable to MPLX for fourth-quarter 2022 was $1,270 million, providing 1.6X distribution coverage, up from $1,207 million in the year-ago quarter.

Distribution per unit was 77.5 cents for the reported quarter, indicating a 10% increase from the prior-year quarter’s distribution. The distribution will be paid out on Feb 14, 2023, to common unitholders of record as of Feb 6, 2023.

Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter under review declined to $1,093 million from $1,103 million in the corresponding period of 2021.

Balance Sheet

As of Dec 31, 2022, the partnership’s cash and cash equivalents were $238 million. Its total debt amounted to $19.8 billion.

Outlook

For 2023, MPLX stated its capital spending outlook of $950 million, which includes $800 million of growth capital and $150 million of maintenance capital. The metric suggests a significant improvement from the $855 million reported in 2022.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, MPLX LP has an average Growth Score of C, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, MPLX LP has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.