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Why Is Albemarle (ALB) Down 24.9% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Albemarle (ALB - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 24.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Albemarle due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Albemarle's Q4 Earnings Surpass Estimates, Sales Lag

Albemarle logged a profit of $1,132.4 million or $9.60 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022 against a loss of $3.8 million or 3 cents per share a year ago.

Adjusted earnings in the reported quarter were $8.62 per share, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.46.

Revenues climbed roughly 193% year over year to $2,621 million in the quarter, However, it trailed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,626.5 million. The top line was driven by higher lithium pricing and increased volumes.

Segment Highlights

Sales from the Lithium unit surged 410% year over year to $2,066 million. Sales were driven by higher pricing (up 328% net of currency) associated with renegotiated contracts and higher market pricing. Volumes rose 82% in the quarter on the back of the La Negra III/IV expansion in Chile and increased tolling volumes to meet rising customer demand.

The Bromine Specialties segment recorded sales of $319.4 million, up 10% year over year. Sales were supported by a 9% (net of currency) rise in pricing and 1% higher volume.

The Catalysts unit recorded revenues of $235.5 million in the reported quarter, up around 18% year over year. Volumes rose 8% while pricing increased 10% (net of currency).

FY22 Results

Earnings for full-year 2022 were $22.84 per share compared with $1.06 per share a year ago. Net sales more than doubled year over year to $7,320.1 million.

Financial Position

Albemarle ended 2022 with cash and cash equivalents of roughly $1,499,1 million, up more than three-fold year over year. Long-term debt was around $3,215 million, up around 60% year over year.

Cash flow from operations was $1,907.8 million for full-year 2022, up more than five-fold year over year.

Outlook

Albemarle expects net sales in the band of $11.3-$12.9 billion for 2023. It sees strength in lithium pricing and end-market demand to drive a 55-75% year-over-year rise in net sales in 2023. Adjusted EBITDA for the year is forecast to be $4.2-$5.1 billion.

Albemarle also sees adjusted earnings per share for 2023 in the band of $26.00-$33.00.

The company anticipates capital expenditures of $1.7-$1.9 billion for 2023. Net cash from operations is projected to be $2.1-$2.4 billion for the year.
 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 21.83% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Albemarle has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Albemarle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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