Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.

We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

In fact, when we combined a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better and a positive Earnings ESP, stocks produced a positive surprise 70% of the time. Perhaps most importantly, using these parameters has helped produce 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider American Airlines?

Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. American Airlines (AAL Quick QuoteAAL - Free Report) earns a #2 (Buy) right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.09 a share, just 22 days from its upcoming earnings release on April 20, 2023.

AAL has an Earnings ESP figure of +592.31%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.09 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.01. American Airlines is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

AAL is just one of a large group of Transportation stocks with a positive ESP figure. FedEx (FDX Quick QuoteFDX - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.

Slated to report earnings on June 22, 2023, FedEx holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $4.78 a share 85 days from its next quarterly update.

FedEx's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +4.32% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.58.

Because both stocks hold a positive Earnings ESP, AAL and FDX could potentially post earnings beats in their next reports.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>