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Why Is Old Dominion (ODFL) Down 1% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Old Dominion due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Old Dominion Lags Q1 Earnings & Revenues Estimates

Old Dominion Freight Line reported disappointing first-quarter 2023 results wherein both earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Results were hurt by softness pertaining to the domestic economy, which resulted in a challenging operating environment.

Quarterly earnings per share of $2.58 fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.69 and declined 0.8% year over year. Revenues of $1,442.1 million lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,488.5 million and decreased 3.7% year over year. The downside was due to lackluster less-than-truckload (LTL) revenues.

The LTL services unit logged a total of $1,424.37 million, down 3.5% year over year. Revenues from other services fell 17.4% to $17.76 million.

In the quarter under review, LTL weight per shipment fell 2.5%, while LTL revenue per shipment rose 6.5%. LTL shipments and LTL shipments per day were down 9.6% each, year over year. LTL revenue per hundredweight increased 9.2%.

Total operating expenses inched down 2.9% to $1.06 billion. Operating income declined 5.4% to $383.04 million.

Old Dominion exited the March quarter with cash and cash equivalents worth $207.6 million compared with $186.3 million at the end of 2022. Long-term debt of $79.96 million remained flat sequentially. During the first quarter, Old Dominion paid out dividends worth $44.1 million and repurchased shares worth $141.7 million.

ODFL generated $415.4 million of net cash from operating activities in the reported quarter. Capital expenditures incurred in the reported quarter were $234.7 million.

For 2023, ODFL anticipates its aggregate capital expenditures to be approximately $700 million. Of the total, $260 million is anticipated to be invested in real estate and service center expansion projects, $365 million in tractors and trailers, and $75 million in information technology and other assets.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -14.9% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Old Dominion has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Old Dominion has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Old Dominion is part of the Zacks Transportation - Truck industry. Over the past month, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX - Free Report) , a stock from the same industry, has gained 1.8%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended March 2023 more than a month ago.

Knight-Swift reported revenues of $1.64 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -10.4%. EPS of $0.73 for the same period compares with $1.35 a year ago.

For the current quarter, Knight-Swift is expected to post earnings of $0.75 per share, indicating a change of -46.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.3% over the last 30 days.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) for Knight-Swift. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of A.


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