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Franco-Nevada (FNV) Down 7.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Franco-Nevada (FNV - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 7.4% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Franco-Nevada due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Franco-Nevada Q1 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Dip Y/Y

Franco-Nevada reported adjusted earnings of 79 cents per share in first-quarter 2023, down from 93 cents reported in the prior-year quarter. The bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 77 cents.

The company generated revenues of $276 million in the reported quarter, marking a year-over-year decline of 18.6%. The downside was mainly driven by a decrease in GEOs earned from Precious Metal assets and lower realized oil and gas and iron ore prices. During the March-end quarter, 76.8% of revenues were sourced from Precious Metal assets (62.3% gold, 10.4% silver and 4.1% platinum group metals).

The company sold 111,238 GEOs from precious metal assets in the reported quarter, down from the prior-year quarter’s 128,627 GEOs. The downside was driven by curtailed operations at Antapaccay and lower deliveries from Antamina and Guadalupe-Palmarejo.

During the reported quarter, adjusted EBITDA fell 20% year over year to $229 million.

Financial Position

The company had $1,248 million cash in hand at the end of the first quarter of 2023, up from $723 million reported at the end of first-quarter 2022. It recorded an operating cash flow of $210 million in the first quarter of 2023, down from $231 million in the prior-year quarter.

Franco-Nevada is debt-free and uses its free cash flow to expand its portfolio and pay dividends. FNV now has available capital of $2.2 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

Currently, Franco-Nevada has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.


Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision has been net zero. Notably, Franco-Nevada has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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