It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Barrick Gold (GOLD Quick QuoteGOLD - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 14.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Barrick Gold due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Barrick's Q1 Earnings Top Estimates, Revenues Lag

Barrick reported a first-quarter 2023 net income of $120 million or 7 cents per share, down from $438 million or 25 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings were 14 cents per share. The figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 11 cents.

Barrick recorded sales of $2,643 million, down around 7.4% year over year. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,207.6 million.

The results in the reported quarter were hurt by lower year-over-year gold and copper production, a fall in gold sales volumes and higher costs.

Operational Highlights

Total gold production was 952,000 ounces in the reported quarter, down around 3.9% year over year and 15% sequentially. The lower production was mainly due to reduced output at Carlin resulting from annual roaster maintenance, which led to a fall in throughput at Goldstrike.

First-quarter gold sales were 954,000 ounces, down around 4% year over year.

Average realized price of gold was $1,902 per ounce in the quarter, up around 1% year over year.

Cost of sales increased about 16% year over year to $1,378 per ounce.

AISC moved up around 18% year over year to $1,370 per ounce in the quarter.

Copper production declined approximately 13% year over year to 88 million pounds. Average realized copper price was $4.20 per pound, down around 10% year over year.

Financial Position

At the end of the reported quarter, Barrick had cash and cash equivalents of $4,377 million, down around 26% year over year. The company’s debt was $4,777 million at the end of the quarter, down roughly 7% year over year.

Operating cash flow was $776 million for the quarter, down around 22.7% year over year.

Guidance

For 2023, Barrick anticipates attributable gold production in the range of 4.2-4.6 million ounces. It sees stronger year-over-year production performance from Cortez, Pueblo Viejo and Turquoise Ridge.

The company expects AISC in the range of $1,170-$1,250 per ounce, cash costs per ounce in the band of $820-$880 per ounce and cost of sales within $1,170-$1,250 per ounce for 2023.

The company also projects copper production in the range of 420-470 million pounds for 2023. It also sees copper AISC of $2.95-$3.25 per pound, cash costs per ounce in the band of $2.05-$2.25 and cost of sales of $2.60-$2.90 per pound.

Capital expenditures are projected between $2,200 million and $2,600 million for 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision flatlined during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted 8.72% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Barrick Gold has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a C. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Barrick Gold has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.